India To Become World’s Second-Largest Solar PV Manufacturer By 2026: Study 

A recent joint study by the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) and JMK Research & Analytics claims that India will likely become the second-largest solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer by 2026.

The report claimed that India’s total module manufacturing capacity more than doubled from 18 Gigawatt (GW) in March 2022 to 38 GW in March 2023. That, combined with the fresh capacities coming up as part of the PLI scheme means the country should be self sufficient in modules by 2025-26.

The report claimed that with the anticipated cumulative 110 GW of solar PV module capacity by 2026, India is set to become the second-largest producer of solar PVs, second only to China. However, Vibhuti Garg, one of the study’s co-authors, cautions that after India becomes self-sufficient in solar PV production, the next challenge would be to fight for dominance in the global clean energy market. 

“After India attains self-sufficiency in two to three years, the next action should be to challenge and compete for dominance in quality and scale in the global PV module market. However, despite the aggressive market drivers, minor hurdles impede the growth of the PV manufacturing industry. Therefore, policy stability is necessary to sustain investor confidence in the market,” Garg said. 

The two tranches of the government’s PLI scheme reveal that there will be an increase of 51.6GW of module capacity and at least 27.4GW of integrated “polysilicon-to-module” capacity in the country in the next three to four years, the report said. Data from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, as of February 27, 2023, claimed that India has more than 70 domestic solar PV manufacturers with an enlisted capacity of 22,389 Megawatt (MW). 

Meanwhile, the report also hinted that some bottlenecks must be fixed for the sector’s growth. For example, the researchers cited dependency on Chinese imports for upstream components of PV modules like polysilicon, ingots/wafers, and others as a significant hurdle. 

“With the Chinese government mulling restrictions on the outflow of the critical technology used in the manufacture of these upstream components, it is imperative for countries targeting integrated PV manufacturing at scale to identify alternate sources of supply for these raw materials,” says the report’s co-author Nagoor Shaik, Senior Research Associate. 

The research recommended that the Indian government needed to augment the PLI scheme to include more upstream components, PV equipment machinery, and ancillary components for more holistic development of the PV manufacturing ecosystem. 

While the report offers a predictable diagnosis of India’s solar manufacturing ecosystem, external factors, especially the push for domestic manufacturing in the North American and European markets, and even Australia mean that the long term solar market in India may not have the kind of export opportunities that exist today. A strong domestic market will be a must to sustain such high production levels, failing which a consolidation will take place sooner than later, especially among smaller sub 500 MW capacity players.