World Is On Track To Add 593 GW Solar Power By 2024: EMBER

World Is On Track To Add 593 GW Solar Power By 2024: EMBER

The world this year saw a strong increase in solar energy installation which is now estimated to install 593 GW of solar panels by the end of this year i.e., in 2024, according to the latest report by EMBER. A recent report by the research organization found that at the current rate of installation, solar will continue to maintain a strong growth, especially as solar saw an estimated 87% surge in 2023. By the end of July 2024, solar is expected to add 292 GW of solar capacity had been installed. This is 29% more than what was installed last year.

Ember analyzed the latest monthly solar capacity data for 15 countries, accounting for 80% of solar installations in 2023. The report found that these capacity additions increased by 29% in these countries from January to July this year. This indicates that a 29% growth rate continues until the end of this year compared to the same period last year. 

For the remaining countries, this report uses exports of solar panels from China up to July 2024 to estimate what will be installed throughout 2024. This analysis suggests that 115 GW (with a range of 81-149 GW) of solar capacity will be installed in the rest of the world in 2024. Through this the report indicates towards a rise of 29% compared to 2023 and reflects high additions from new markets such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

In China, the country with the largest solar fleet, solar additions for January-July 2024 were 28% higher than in the same period in 2023. Meanwhile, solar capacity installations in India in the first seven months of 2024 are 77% higher than in the same period in 2023. In the US, new solar additions from January-June 2024 are 55% higher than in January-June 2023.

Capacity data from European countries showed continued growth in solar installations, albeit at a more modest pace than in previous years for some countries. In Italy, the EU’s third-largest solar market in 2023, installations are up by 41% in the January-July period. Germany and the United Kingdom are showing more modest market growth of 11% for the same period compared to January-July 2023. Portugal has installed twice as many solar panels in the first seven months of the year as it did in the same period in 2023, but in absolute terms, it is still a small market compared to other countries that Ember tracks. Although Poland showed lower installations in January-June 2024 than in the same period in 2023, they were still four times higher than in the first half of 2019.

Top Performing States

Five Countries Contribute Three-Quarters of Estimated Solar Capacity Additions in 2024. The combined additions of China, the United States, India, Germany, and Brazil are on track to make up 75% of global solar additions in 2024. Other countries we tracked for this analysis add a further 5%. The remaining 20% are derived from an analysis of Chinese solar PV exports that act as a proxy to indicate countries where significant installations may be taking place without being reported.

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Solar Export Data Points to Strong Growth in New Markets

Although not all countries publish monthly updates on solar capacity, other indicators show signs of even faster growth outside of the countries mentioned above. Based on data on Chinese solar exports collated by Ember, we estimate additions of 115 GW (81-149 GW) in these countries. Export data suggests that new solar markets are rapidly emerging.

Other countries like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have reportedly seen average monthly imports of solar panels soar to more than 1 GW. In the first seven months of 2024, Pakistan imported 12.5 GW of solar panels, while Saudi Arabia imported 9.7 GW. If these panels are installed, it could put the two countries firmly in the company of established, large solar markets, like Germany, Brazil, and India.

There is also a recent increase observed in the Philippines, the UAE, Thailand, and Oman. Exports to South Africa have recently picked up again after they dropped in the middle of 2023.