Wind & Solar Can Reduce Emissions By 20% In Power Sector: EMBER

Wind & Solar Can Reduce Emissions By 20% In Power Sector: EMBER

A report released by EMBER on peak fossil fuel emission states that wind and solar can reduce emissions by 20% in the power sector. The report shows growing evidence that the world is close to a global peak in power sector emissions. The report finds that there are 107 economies, which have moved past ‘peak’ fossil power.

Taking a global perspective, the report states that half of the world’s economies are already at least five years past a peak in electricity generation from fossil fuels. Since the power sector has fulfilled the majority of the power demand, the report gives a view on the current status of emissions within the power sector. Based on the report, there are 107 economies out of of 215 that have passed peak fossil generation at least five years ago. This reportedly, set the stage for a global peak and subsequent decline in power sector emissions.

Region Wise Trend
The current trend suggests that regions such as the EU, Oceania and North America are already well into a period of fossil power decline. With the decline in the fossil generation by 30%, 20% and 15%, respectively, from the regional perspective on peaks. Whereas, for regions such as Africa, fossil power appears to have plateaued. At a continent-wide level, the report finds a similar trend in Latin America and the Caribbean, the report adds. Therefore, the report found that the only regions yet to reach a peak are Asia and the Middle East.

Sharing an update region wise, other regions such as Vietnam, have reduced their fossil generation by 16% in just three years, whereas Jordan and the UAE have almost reached five years since their peak in fossil generation. Ember’s analysis earlier showed that 2023 may be the first year with structurally falling global emissions from the power sector if clean power growth continues.

However, Ember’s mid-year analysis showed that adverse hydro conditions in the first half of 2023 meant that power sector emissions plateaued rather than fell. It still remains too close to call whether power sector emissions will fall across the full year in 2023; if they do not, then the new era of falling power sector emissions would still likely start in 2024.

Role of Solar in Mitigating Fossil Fuel Emissions
The report associates reaching ‘peak’ fossil generation, and therefore emissions, in the power sector to be a crucial milestone in the global transition to a clean, electrified economy. According to the report, the global electricity generation from wind and solar, has more than tripled from 2015 to 2022. Thereby, limiting the growth in fossil generation, even as global power sector demand continues to grow. The report depicts that without wind and solar in the global power sector mix, emissions from the power sector today would be 20% higher.

Based on regionwide analysis, the report finds that the only regions left to reach a peak in fossil power are the Middle East and Asia. Within Asia, countries like Nepal have removed fossil fuels from its power sector entirely, states the report. Other countries in Asia like Japan’s have reportedly dropped fossil power by more than a fifth since its peak a decade ago. Countries like Vietnam has also reported to reduced its fossil generation by 16% in just three years, largely due to the expansion of wind and solar

The report finds that among the G20 countries, 10 countries are more than five years past a peak in fossil generation. These are UK, Italy, Canada, Germany, Japan, South Africa, Australia, the US, France and Argentina. On the contrary, the report states that China witnesses an expanding electricity demand more rapidly than any other country, this is contrary to president Xi pledged to reduce coal use from 2026, as the country leads the world in wind and solar additions.