Tripling RE Power With Efficiency Will Accelerate Fossil Phaseout: EMBER

Tripling RE Power With Efficiency Will Accelerate Fossil Phaseout: EMBER

Energy think-tank EMBER in its recent report, analyzed the impact of increasing renewables and doubling efficiency on phasing out of fossil fuels. The findings reveal that renewables contribute significantly to efficiency, delivering about 85% of the targeted fossil fuel cuts by 2030. EMBER indicates that, by 2035, renewables and efficiency alone can slash total CO2 emissions by more than half, potentially paving the way for a fossil fuel phaseout.

It draws a parallel between increase in renewable energy usage and an increase in energy efficient. For example, replacing inefficient power plants and cars with efficient alternatives to reduce primary energy usage and develop clean alternatives. The report utilizes the metric of primary energy change divided by GDP to gauge improvements in energy intensity.

Reportedly, at COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber, during the recent COP summit, urged governments to agree on global goals to triple renewables capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Last year is too, report states that, at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, 80 countries supported wording for a phaseout of fossil fuels, and the calls this year will be even greater. 

In the pursuit of energy efficiency, the report suggests a 10% reduction in fossil fuel dependency through an increase in nuclear energy. Additionally, it anticipates a 5% cut through carbon capture and storage, aligning with the IEA roadmap.

EMBER report on Tripling renewable and electrification

Collectively, these measures reportedly aim to achieve a 35% decline in carbon dioxide emissions, surpassing the expected 29% drop in fossil fuel use by 2030. Building upon the IEA case, the report asserts that tripling renewable energy alone can halve coal power, thereby achieving a 50% reduction in total CO2 emissions by 2035.

Furthermore, the report underscores that the combined increase in renewables and improved energy efficiency can yield an impressive 86% decline. This implies that renewable use and improved energy efficiency alone help to surpass the halfway mark, achieving a remarkable (-56%) reduction in total CO2 emissions by 2035. Making a comparative analysis, the report indicates that the increase in nuclear energy can contribute to a 9% decline in fossil fuel use from 2022 to 2035, while carbon capture and storage’s impact is estimated at 6%.

Identifying two pivotal factors behind the decarbonization of the power sector, the report highlights the electrification of the sector alongside a 76% decline in unabated fossil fuel use. Simultaneously, the rest of the energy sector contracts due to increased efficiency and electrification, resulting in a substantial reduction of 147 exajoules in fossil fuel consumption. The power sector sees a reduction of 133 exajoules.

The report observes a prevailing trend indicating an overall decline in fossil fuel use, primarily attributed to increased reliance on renewables and enhanced efficiency. However, it cautions against expecting significant contributions from nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage, citing their limited roles due to the lack of mature technology. Emphasizing renewables and efficiency as the pathway to achieve CO2 emission reductions, the report asserts that these measures align with the 1.5-degree pathway and facilitate the phased-out transition from fossil fuels.