To Meet Targets, Wind Power Needs To Grow 3 Times By 2030: Report

To Meet Targets, Wind Power Needs To Grow 3 Times By 2030: Report

A latest report from EMBER studied global renewable capacity and found that, based on current national targets, it’s set to increase by 7.3 TW by 2030. It anticipates that, based on the current national target, the renewable energy capacity is set to increase by 2.1x until 2030.

The report on ‘Tracking National Ambition Towards a Global Tripling of Renewables’, mentions that the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the COP presidency have collectively aligned their national targets. They have aligned themselves towards reducing the tripling of renewable capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030. It would set them on the path to achieving 1.5c. It would require over 90% of the renewable capacity growth from solar and wind. It would require them to raise their wind capacity threefold from 2022 to 2030 and their solar capacity fivefold.

The report, based on the mapped national targets, estimates that, collectively, countries are required to hit an estimated target of 7.3 TW in 2030 from 3.4 TW in 2022. Achieving this would require more than three-quarters of renewable capacity in 2030 to come from solar and wind. Reportedly, 22 countries have shown potential for growth, with numerous projects in pipelines for wind and solar energy.

The report finds that the gap between the doubling achieved by national targets and a global tripling is 3.7 TW. It means that the governments need to raise their ambitions and set targets that reflect the true pace of renewable market growth in their respective countries.

The report mentions that 10 countries have national targets that exceeding or tripling their 2022 capacity. It includes India and Saudi Arabia, among the other 12 countries set to achieve their wind and solar generation targets, which include the United States (US). It adds that they are expected to exceed their 40% global average to meet net zero. It includes countries such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates. Whereas, 22 countries have solar and wind projects in their pipelines that can exceed their renewable capacity to help meet their 2030 national targets.

The latest trend suggests that India is on track with its national targets. It has already set the world on course for 7,250 GW of renewable capacity in 2030. Analyzing the 2030 renewable energy capacity targets, it finds that 93% of global renewable capacity as of 2022 will be 6,714 GW.

Based on the calculation, it is estimated that the global target needs to be adjusted to account for the missing 7% of global renewable capacity. It estimated that the global figure of 7,250 GW in 2030 will rise from 3,382 GW in 2022. It finds that global renewable capacity would more than double if governments delivered their 2030 targets, either explicitly or implicitly. It mentions that China, the EU, the US, and India together will contribute 71% of the global renewable capacity target in 2030. It found that among 54 countries, wind and solar comprise 76% of the renewable energy target, set for 2030. It accounts for 6,714 GW, which aligns with the Net Zero Scenario of 11,000 GW from solar and wind in 2030.

It finds that the current national targets are not keeping up with the recent acceleration of renewable energy. 12 countries are deploying renewable energy faster than the 2030 target. In this regard, India stands as one of them, which is currently planning for a tripling of renewables by 2030.

Sharing its plan for India, the study finds that renewables can provide 42% of total generation by 2030. They could support India’s plans to triple its renewable capacity to 509 GW by 2030. This would come from an interpolation of technology-specific targets for fiscal year (FY) 2026–27. By 2031–32, as presented in the India National Electricity Plan 2022–32 (NEP), and March 2032, These plans can help India reach 570 GW of renewable capacity and reach 44% of renewables in total generation.

Therefore, the report finds that, based on the current plan, India is likely not enough to initiate a fall in coal power. But it is enough to prevent a significant increase in coal power. Ember’s recent report based on the analysis from India’s National Electricity Plan showed that coal power met 83% of the rise in electricity demand in the last decade (from 2012 to 2022) but will meet just 22% of the demand rise in the next decade (from 2022 to 2032). Solar and wind will meet 66% of the rise in electricity demand.