Solar Predictions from China-2020 To Be Much Better

In the first of many predictions we will carry for 2020, we start with some from the China Photo Voltaic Society (CPVS), a leading body of solar experts backed by the Chinese government. CPVS has made its predictions for 2020, and it makes for hopeful reading. In fact, taken in conjunction with other leading firms 2020 promises to revive the kind of growth the industry thrived on, between 2012 to 2018. The society has predicted a strong revival in global demand at 20 percent, on the back of growth across markets including India, European markets, the middle east and countries including South Africa in Africa.

But first, the China market. China, which has slumped to well  under 30 GW in 2019, after adding almost 44 GW in 2018, is expected to lead a strong global recovery by adding 42 GW in 2020. Following China is the US, a market that many thought should have been in third place in 2019, behind India. But with en estimate of 15.5 GW, the US is expected to pip India to third place, at 15 GW. India watchers of course will have their  misgivings about even this prediction for India, thanks to the abysmal plunge in 2019, and the many systemic issues that have plagued the sector all through the year.

For major Chinese firms, ranging from module makers Jinko Solar, to Longi Solar to Sungrow Inverters and many more, the jump in global installations is critical, as many have completed huge capacity expansion moves during the year, that were done in anticipation of a market expansion that hardly happened in 2019. in fact, the one certain thing in 2020 is the continued dominance of the sector by China manufacturers, across the spectrum from ingots to cells to modules, inverters and even backsheets.

Among other interesting predictions coming from China is a rise in the share of bifacial modules, expected to be as high as 15%in 2020, based on numerous interactions we had with China based majors in the month.

Market based electricity prices are expected to continue to drop. The cost reductions in large sized wafers and new efficiencies will continue to lead to module price drops. Poly crystalline cells, production of which is shrinking every quarter as the big firms like Jinko solar stop producing them, are expected to continue mainly on support from price conscious markets like India.