Solar Module Prices To Stabilise At Best In 2025, Not Rise, Says Australian Report

Climate Energy Finance, an Australia based think tank, has predicted that solar module prices are unlikely to rise in 2025, at beat stabilising. This will be reassuring for a lot of developers in India and beyond, who dread the risk of a significant price rise, as supply chains across the world continue to depend on China. CEF reports that with global solar deployments nudging the 600 GW mark, manufacturing capacity is on course for triple that number at 1800 GW or 1.8 TW, all but ensuring no significant price increases in a China dependent supply chain. Global solar capacity additions will reach 1000 GW by 2030, predicts the think tank.

Describing China’s dominance of the solar supply chain as a case of ‘Not winning the race, but owning the race track’, the CEF report pointed to the 29% expansion ion the solar PV supply chain in 2024, with China leading the way.

Price Deflation, Higher Efficiency To make Solar Stronger

CEF stressed that Solar PV is now competitive with new thermal generation across an increasing number of markets globally due to significant reductions in capital expenditure, primarily driven by increasing module efficiencies and technological innovation. Future advancements could halve solar costs again over the coming decade, completely undercutting other generation technologies. In parallel, BESS is experiencing substantial ongoing price deflation, propelled by China’s manufacturing scaling-up, commodity price deflation and rapid technology advancement, making hybrid solar-BESS cost competitive and deployable at speed and scale. Manufacturing overcapacity and continued innovation mean the long-term outlook for both technologies will continue to be deflationary.

CEF expects incremental solar cell efficiency gains to continue to feature over the coming decade as cell efficiencies expand from the current commercialised 25% levels towards 35% as and if long-term perovskite cell stability can be established and commercialised, potentially driving another step change in solar in the coming decade.

China’s Lead Unassailable

China’s solar PV and BESS installations shattered all forecasts in 2024. In 2024, China accounted for half of all new solar PV installations and 70% of global BESS deployments.

While some forecasters assume a consolidation/pullback, CEF expects another record of installations in both in 2025. Policymakers must look beyond China’s conservative targets and current continued thermal generation deployment, focusing instead on China’s broader policy direction of progressive electrification of everything, energy security, expanding their global industry leadership and VRE deployment
trends to grasp the challenge of catching up to China’s almost unbelievable global lead.

Tariff barriers have provided some protection to domestic US and Indian manufacturers, but at a sustained cost to all energy consumers. Instead of focusing on tariffs, CEF believes policymakers should hitch their wagons to the Chinese gift horse and explore strategic collaboration to support domestic production and reaching VRE targets.

With global manufacturing capacity at 2-3 times current global install rates, CEF does advocate for the global industry to immediately suspend all non-essential capacity expansions for several years.

Pointing to European battery maker Northvolt’s collapse as a stark abject lesson when it comes to competing with the Chinese, the think tank favours cooperation over competition with China for any country with solar manufacturing ambitions.

View the full report here.