Solar Energy In US Can Surpass Hydropower By 2024: EIA Estimates

Solar Energy In US Can Surpass Hydropower By 2024: EIA Estimates

A latest Energy International Agency (EIA) report on solar growth in the United States (US) suggested that the country witnessed an increase in installed capacity by an average rate of by 44% annually from 2009 to 2022. It forecasted that the US would generate 14% more electricity from solar energy than from hydroelectric facilities in 2024.

The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report forecasted that the growth in solar would be driven by new utility-scale and small-scale solar facilities. The EIA reported that for the first time in September 2022, the United States had more solar-generated electricity than hydroelectric generation. Based on the Electric Power Monthly report, the US solar power plants and rooftop solar generated about 19 billion kilowatt hours, (kWh) compared with 17 billion kWh from U.S. hydropower plants.

The US Solar Generation Capacity To Surpass Hydropower By 2024: EIA Report Estimates

The report concluded that solar power outpaced hydropower again this summer due to exponential growth in installed solar capacity. It elaborated that the installed hydroelectric capacity increased by less than 1% each year. In the STEO report it mentioned that they expect the annual solar generation to surpass annual hydropower generation in 2024 for the first time. In 2019, it was the last time that the annual wind generation reportedly surpassed annual hydropower generation. Therefore, the report concluded that the growth trajectory in U.S. solar and wind are following a similar pattern, where both largely follow growth in installed capacity.

Incentives

The US has reportedly received incentives through investment tax credits. This has reportedly encouraged growth in the renewable generation capacity. It is estimated that by August 2023, installed US solar capacity totaled more than 125 gigawatts (GW). This reportedly included 80 GW of utility-scale solar capacity and an estimated 45 GW of small-scale solar capacity.

Hydroelectric capacity in the United States has reportedly remained relatively steady at about 80 GW for the past few decades. The weather patterns reportedly found in the US have reduced its hydroelectric generation through August this year. During times of high demand or high prices, hydroelectric generators have reportedly developed reservoirs that can store water, that is to be released through dams to generate electricity. Therefore, the control over the output is limited by long-term hydrologic conditions and other complications associated with water rights and recreational uses. Thus, despite these challenges, hydropower continues to be a key source in the hourly pattern of generation in areas like the Pacific Northwest.