Slowdown in Power Generation Decline Seen as a Sign of Recovery

The rate of decline in power generation in the past few months have slowed down in July, this slowdown is being seen as a sign of recovery.

According to data made available by government resources, the rate of decline in power generation in the past few months has slowed down in July. This slowdown is being seen as a sign of recovery, that the economy is (perhaps) gradually returning back to normalcy after getting severely hit by the pandemic and the subsequent lockdown measures to contain its spread.

As per data available with grid operator POSOCO, electricity generation fell by 1.8 percent in July as compared to the much sharper fall of 9.9 percent in the previous month of June. The generation had also fallen sharply in April when most parts of the country were under full lockdown due to the COVID-19 outbreak.

However, it is also interesting to note that while there has been an overall increase in power generation and consumption, the trajectory of the consumption and generation has been negative as the month of July progressed. The decline continued at much faster pace in the latter part of the month, than it did in the first half. In the first half, the decline in generation was just about 0.6 percent, but it rapidly increased to 3.1 percent after July 15.

The slowdown in generation decline has come at the behest of a pick up in power consumption in large populous states such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Jharkhand. However, the power consumption continued to remain slow in the industrial states of Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, indicating that things are still far from normal and both economic growth and a pick up in power consumption will take more time to materialise.

Recently, a new report released by The Energy Resource Institute (TERI) tried to present how the electricity demand would be affected by the economic effects of the Coronavirus pandemic in the mid-term to 2025. It believes that the demand for electricity in India is expected to be 7 to 17 percent lower by 2025 due to the COVID-19 economic shock than it would have been in a scenario without the COVID-19 shock.