Renewables Can Bring Down Singapore’s Gas Dependency To 61%: EMBER

Solar Estimate To Generate 8.2% Of Global Electricity In June 2024

A recent report from energy think tank EMBER said that Singapore’s heavy reliance on gas-based electricity could be cut down with the expected rise of renewables in the country. The report said that based on its calculations, the share of electricity from gas would drop from 92% in 2022 to 61% by 2035. This was attributed to the rise of renewable energy on the Southeast Asian country.

“Based on Ember’s calculation, this would mean the share of electricity from gas would drop from 92% in 2022 to 61% by 2035 as renewables are increasingly imported to meet demand. Being on track to net-zero power by 2045 and doubling the target for renewable import capacity from around 4.2 GW to 8.1 GW by 2035 can also reduce 52-58% of Singapore’s per-capita power sector emissions by 2035, while also reducing its reliance on imported gas and exposure to energy price shocks,” the EMBER report said.

The report also said that with its substantial financial resources and positioning, Singapore had the financial muscle to fuel Asia’s energy transition, making it well-suited to lead and fund renewable projects in the region. “Accelerating renewables and electricity interconnection in the coming decade will not only secure Singapore’s clean energy future and improve its energy security but such
decisions will also carry implications across the broader Asia-Pacific region,” it said.

The EMBER report said that under the Singapore Green Plan 2030, solar generation is set to grow from less than 1 TWh in 2023 to 5.1 TWh in 2035, while renewable imports will reach 26 TWh. However, it said, “Singapore needs to double the scale of the
planned expansion by 2035 (57 TWh) if Singapore is to align with the IEA’s NZE milestone while also meeting growing demand.”

The country plans to import clean electricity from neighboring countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cambodia, based on its 2030 Green Plan. Whereas renewable imports are expected to reach 26 TWh, the report stated. However, Singapore needs to double the scale of the planned expansion by 2035 (57 TWh) if Singapore is to align with the IEA’s NZE milestone and meet demand.

It estimated that the share of renewable generation is expected to increase from around 4% in 2022 to 40% by 2035. This highlighted the country’s need to build an enhanced electricity system connectivity to integrate fast-growing renewable energy projects.

EMBER in its study found Singapore’s only promising domestic renewable energy option is solar, with a potential of 8.6 GWp by 2050. The solar capacity in Singapore as per the report expanded from just 0.01 GW in 2012 to around 0.6 GW in 2022. However, the country has reportedly, also continued the trend of switching to fossil gas from other fossil-based power (such as steam plants). It has plans to add a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant which can ramp up gas capacity to 11 GW by 2028.

The recent trends suggested, that historically, Singapore’s power system relied on gas imports from Malaysia and Indonesia. In 2023, the study found, that gas made up 92% (53 TWh) of electricity generation, while renewables such as solar met around 2% (0.9 TWh) and bioenergy met almost 3% (1.7 TWh). Whereas reportedly only 0.2% (0.1 TWh) of power was imported from the Laos-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore Power Integration Project (LTMS-PIP) in 2023.

The report analyses that, even if Singapore completely builds its theoretical solar power potential of 8.6 GW by 2050, could generate 15 TWh of electricity. It assumes a 20% capacity factor to be enough to meet just 12% of the total power demand in 2050. Therefore, the study showed, that the country’s net-zero ambitions depend on the success of regional projects to import renewable energy.

Under the Singapore Green Plan 2030, the country is set to more than triple solar capacity from 0.6 GW to 2 GW by the end of this decade, reflecting the shifting policy focus to clean energy. With this addition, the share of electricity generated from solar will increase from around 2% (0.9 TWh) in 2023 to 6% (5.1 TWh) by 2035, assuming a 20% capacity factor for solar.

Together, these plans can ensure that domestic solar generates 6% of Singapore’s electricity in 2035, growing from less than 1 TWh in 2023 to 5 TWh in 2035, while the combined renewable imports are expected to supply 30% (26 TWh). The overall renewable energy share in the country’s power mix is expected to be about 40%. The Economic Development Board of Singapore (EDB) expects the share of gas to fall to about 50% by 2035. This is expected to reduce the country’s exposure to gas, and the accompanying price volatility, and provide diversification of energy sources to improve the security of future electricity supply.

On the research and development front, Singapore has reportedly invested in solar energy research in Southeast Asia. These investments included USD 4.6 million in research grants for solar power forecasting in 2017 and USD 57.4 million for solar cell research in 2023, reflecting its commitment to accelerating the region’s clean power transition.

With the diverse market structures across Asia Pacific, Singapore can consider multiple routes to becoming a renewable energy project sponsor. One of the recent examples taken by developers from Singapore is investing in countries that allow 100% foreign ownership. Another example is the USD 5 billion investment to build a 3.5 GW solar power plant in Indonesia that will export all of its generated electricity to Singapore.