RE Push Can Lead To 24% Dip In Coal Power Generation By 2030: CEEW Study

India’s Push On Solar, Wind Managed To Avoid 80 GW Coal Need: CEEW

India’s current climate policies are already helping bend its long-term emissions curve and are projected to reduce CO2 emissions by almost 4 billion tones between 2020 and 2030, a latest report from the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) said. This reduction is equivalent to nearly 1.6 times the European Union’s CO2 emissions in 2023.

It’s a significant contribution to India’s reduction emissions commitment to reduce emissions by 1 billion tonnes by 2030 at COP26 in Glasgow. The study, ‘Impact of Select Climate Policies on India’s Emissions Pathway’, found that policies for India’s power, residential, and transport sectors have already saved 440 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) between 2015 and 2020. The highest reduction due to the policy interventions is observed in India’s power sector, given that its share of the country’s carbon emissions is significantly higher than other sectors.

According to the CEEW study, in the power sector alone, policies promoting renewable energy are expected to drive a 24 percent decline in coal-based electricity generation by 2030, relative to a no-policy scenario. This is equivalent to avoiding 80 GW of coal-based power plants that would have otherwise been installed to meet India’s burgeoning power demand. India currently has an installed RE (excluding large hydro) capacity of ~155 GW.

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Policy Support Can Help To Increase Solar, Wind Share In Energy Mix

Further, with support and competitive tenders, the share of combined solar and wind power in the energy mix for India is projected to go up to 26 percent by 2030 and 43 percent by 2050, up from only ~3 percent in 2015. This will decisively reduce reliance on coal, which is currently the source of nearly half of the country’s total carbon dioxide emissions. This shift is crucial for bending India’s emissions curve downward, but achieving net zero by 2070 will require even more ambitious action.

Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, CEEW, said, “This has not only diversified our energy mix and doubled down on energy security, but also created new markets and significantly cut India’s carbon dioxide emissions. The road to net zero needs bolder action, and the foot cannot be taken off the pedal now. To enable the Global South’s efforts, COP29 must ensure climate finance flows to developing countries like India, without riders. This would deepen renewable markets and a sustainable future for all.”

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In the transport sector, the CEEW study found that policies such as the FAME (2015-2022) schemes have set the stage for significant growth in the electric vehicle market. Projections show that by 2030, electric two-wheeler and four-wheeler sales could make up 19 and 11 per cent of their respective segments. This could lead to a 13 per cent reduction in oil and gas demand in this decade. By 2050, these figures are expected to rise dramatically to above 65 per cent for both EV categories, resulting in a 55 per cent reduction in the sector’s oil and gas demand relative to the no policy scenario.

In the residential sector, the 2006 Standards and Labelling programme has led to significant energy efficiency improvements in air-conditioning and cooling. The CEEW study found that air conditioning-related electricity consumption in Indian households is projected to double between 2020 and 2030 and then soar by almost ten times by 2050. This growth would be driven not just by hotter summers and higher incomes but also due to lower electricity prices on the back of higher renewable energy penetration. Meanwhile, the UJALA programme – by promoting and distributing over 367 million energy-efficient LED bulbs since 2015 – is projected to reduce residential lighting electricity use by 48 per cent by 2030 and 59 per cent by 2050 relative to the no policy scenario.

Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow, CEEW, and lead author of the study, emphasised the importance of enhancing existing policies: “Our findings show that current policies have set India on the right path. New policies that build on existing climate policies are already being formulated to accelerate efforts to meet the 2070 net-zero target. Immediate steps should include scaling up investments in renewable energy, enhancing the domestic Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, and focusing on energy efficiency in key sectors like industry, transport and buildings.”