PV Installs Explode Despite Obstacles, Jump 87 GW

Despite ongoing price increases on polysilicon and other commodities, rising costs, sanctions against China for using Uyghur forced labor to produce solar panels, not to mention the US Department of Commerce block in early 2022 due to antidumping accusations in Southeast Asia, solar installations are likely to increase by 38% year over year.

This is the main finding of a new research paper released by Rethink Energy, which forecasts the energy landscape and explores the investment possibilities. The study is titled, “PV installs exploding despite challenges – leap 87 GW, more to come.”

Rising Module Costs, Rising Energy Expenses, & Protectionism in US & India

US installations appeared to be down more than 50% by the end of Q1 before President Biden intervened with his Emergency Authority to break the impasse.

The majority of solar installations worldwide are still located in China, which added 30.2 GW in the first half of the year and will add 55.9 GW throughout the rest of the year, for full-year growth of 56.9%, according to Andries Wantenaar, lead author of the report and solar analyst at Rethink Energy.

According to Rethink Energy, “This implies China is 38.4% of the global installs and growing. The number of solar installations worldwide in Q1 was 40.4 GW, and in Q2, it was 46.6 GW. Both of those numbers are up 32.4% and 50.6% over the previous year.”

As a result, Rethink Energy increased its 2022 prediction from 204 GW to 224 GW overall. Despite its comprehensive near-blockade of imports for Q1, the US market is up 18.1% and the Indian market is up 53.5%.

For the second half of the year, the eight European markets, as per the forecast will add a total of 17.8 GW, an increase of 48.1% over the first half.

While the East Asian periphery, which includes Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, gained just 6.2 GW in the first half and will add another 5.8 GW, a decline of 1.7%, Latin America contributed 7.1 GW in the first half and will add another 12.2 GW, for full-year growth of 26.1%.

Germany and Poland have experienced the largest increases in European PV deployments. Poland is not far behind in fifth place, and it may even overtake Germany the following year. Germany has moved to fourth place globally and will hold the position. Behind Brazil, Japan will drop to the seventh spot.

India and China are both actively introducing new subsidies and incentives, but practically all Europeans lag behind these nations with the strongest year-over-year growth.

Not only will South Korea and Japan experience a fall, but Australia may also experience a higher decline of up to 15%. Investment there has been declining for several years, and the predicted revival won’t yet be seen in H2 data.

Polysilicon Production Increases, Yet Prices Rise

Polysilicon, which has been the main driver of price rises for the past year, is being ramped up substantially, expanding by 5.6% each month during the first half of 2022, yet prices have remained high. The thickness of wafers is reduced from 175mm to 155mm, which will result in a 6% reduction in the amount of polysilicon used.

Currently, 97% of the world’s wafer production comes from China, as do 80% of the manufacturing of modules and polysilicon. Earlier, Rethink Energy research report predicted that the price of polysilicon is to fall steeply from the start of 2023.