Polysilicon industry to experience severe cut-throat competition in 2018: Bernreuter Research

Bernreuter Research in its new report ‘Polysilicon Market Outlook 2020,’ has revealed that polysilicon industry will experience severe cut-throat competition in 2018.

The research firm in its report states that half a dozen polysilicon manufacturers could be pushed out of business by the end of 2018. “Slowing demand from the photovoltaic industry on the one hand and increasing production capacities on the other will cause turmoil on the polysilicon market,” said Johannes Bernreuter, head of Bernreuter Research and author of the report.

The polysilicon spot price is expected to fall from more than 14 US$/kg currently to below 12 $/kg in 2018.

According to the report in 2014- 2015 supply of polysilicon grew rapidly than demand from the photovoltaic (PV) industry, which consumes approx. 90% of polysilicon produced worldwide.

Bernreuter in a statement said that the massive Chinese PV installation rally in the first half of 2016 saved the polysilicon industry from even more serious oversupply.

The report states between 2017 and 2019, new capacities of up to 141,000 MT – 70% of them in China – are planned to come on stream while the annual growth rate of new PV installations will sink below 10%. This disparity between supply and demand will result in strong cut-throat competition.

“We expect that some projects will be deferred, others will end up as stranded investments, and several existing manufacturers will disappear from the market,” said Bernreuter. He added “It remains to be seen if Chinese producers can meet the high purity requirements for semiconductors.“

The 70-page report from Bernreuter contains elaborate scenarios of supply and demand, detailed forecasts of polysilicon prices and manufacturing costs through 2020 as well as the latest development of FBR technology.