Pak Needs Aggressive RE Plan to Meet Solar & Wind Potential of 33,000 MW: Think Tank

A study by Germany based think tank Agora Energiewendie has come up with its analysis that Pakistan needs to have a better and far more ambitious plan to increase its variable renewable energy (VRE), mainly solar and wind energy. The study called ‘Solar and Wind Roadmap for Pakistan’ said that the South Asian country must raise its objective towards renewable energy than what National Transmission & Despatch Company (NTDC) has done in the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) for 10 years.

Pakistan’s current coalition government has set a target of 10,000 MW of solar energy by 2025. Even this target is struggling to move, thanks to the financial crisis that country faces, partly due to its unsustainable energy sector that is caught up in a spiral of unsustainable ‘circular’ debt caused mainly by thermal power capacity that needs to be paid for in US dollars to Chinese operators and others. The Pakistani rupee has depreciated to a level of almost Rs 290 in recent weeks, from Rs 120-Rs 140 levels when some of these projects were started 3 years back. Consumers currently face the twin shocks of high energy prices and undependable supplies.

Speaking on the IGCEP,  Agora report mentions that the solar and wind potential of Pakistan stands at 33,000 MW. Agora said that this capacity of solar and wind energy is actually over 48% of the total planned increase in power generation in the coming decade. The study mentions that this variable renewable energy will save about 15% cost and 50% emissions.

Agora examined renewable energy scenarios post 2022 and advocates for the benefits of having a national plan that is more aggressive for solar and wind segments by 2030-31. It also advocates that Pakistan should add minor grid infrastructure for greater power flow from renewables.

The report on Pakistan held, “Increasing VRE to 33,000 MW by 2030 or 60pc greater than the IGCEP planned 21,000MW has high benefits and is stable under all scenarios. For any unexpected change in demand or others, the annual tender capacities of solar and wind can be adjusted flexibly in the future.”

Agora stated that road infrastructure, flexible operation of hydro and coal units and strict implementation of localised tender plans to auction for 33,000 MW of solar & wind capacity on annual basis are utmost strategic for Pakistan. It said that wind and solar must have greater share than estimated by NTDC in future: 13,680 MW from solar power and 6,868 MW for wind to ensure that they make 30% of the total installed power capacity of Pakistan in 2031.

 The Agora analysis wants optimised generation from hydropower and coal reserves of Pakistan for greater power security. In the long run, the trio of variable renewable energies, hydropower and coal would lower the basket price of power in Pakistan and bring relief to all kinds of power consumers.

At present, Pakistan has just 1% of power generation from solar and 4% from wind sources.