Module Prices Near Bottom, As Cell Prices See First Hike In Months

Solar Module prices from China, which dictate prices around the world, finally seem close to a bottom for now, after a relentless fall in 2023.  The earliest indicators come in the form of solar cell prices, which saw a weekly increase of 1.5% to 2% this week This happened even as mono grade Polysilicon prices, which drove down most of the costs in 2023, have settled at around 65 CNY (Chinese Yuan)/kg, where they have finally found support.

Wafer prices too seem to be close to bottoming out, with many players we spoke to indicating a small round of hikes will start as early September now. For now however, key supplier TCL Zhonghuan has made a further cut in silicon wafer prices to US$0.4/piece. The cut follows Longi, which had cut prices earlier. While no one indicates future price trends, by most accounts, a further cut from these levels would start hurting manufacturers.

That would mean that module prices, which hit a low of 19c/watt early this week, might be all set to consolidate, before even starting a slow climb up. Developers holding back in the hope of a further drop would probably do well to start hedging against any further delays to projects in the hope of lower prices.

Multiple manufacturers we spoke to believe that the bottom is here, and prices should be set for an upwards move from September.

They build their cautious optimism on hopes of destocking across multiple manufacturers in the supply chain, besides Europe, which seems to have absorbed a large part of the stock earlier this year. However, no one is predicting a significant increase from these levels in 2023-24, especially a level beyond 22 cents/watt that was seen as ideal by many developers until last year.

We hope to bring you a detailed version of this story with official spokespersons soon, as the people we spoke to were either not authorised to speak by their organisations, or unwilling to be quoted.  So keep watching this space!