Land Issues Slowing Down RE Projects In South Asia: Bloomberg

For Net Zero India Needs 494 GWs Of Solar & Wind Capacity By 2030: Bloomberg NEF

According to a recent report by Bloomberg’s New Energy Outlook (BNEF), renewables can overtake fossil fuels to reach 51% of power supply in 2030, 63% in 2040, and 70% in 2050.

Bloomberg reported the current scenario and found that the global electricity demand based on the Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) grew by over 70% from 2023 to just over 43,000 terawatt hours in 2050. It explained that, globally the unabated fossil fuels generation in the ETS will be down 22% by 2030 versus current levels and 39% by 2050. It associated this with a decline in coal generation based on economics and phase-out schedules. On the contrary, the installed renewables capacity has more than doubled by the end of this decade. This growth is reportedly driven by strong deployment in almost all markets.

Issue Of Land constraint

The report stated, “Early emissions reductions are crucial in the NZS, the period 2024-2030 which is dominated by rapid power-sector decarbonization, energy efficiency gains, and rapid acceleration of carbon capture and storage deployment. Wind and solar alone are responsible for half of emissions abatement during these seven years.”

It further explained that countries like Latin America benefit from a high contribution from hydropower. Economies with a large legacy nuclear fleet or land constraints have the lowest share of renewables. Additionally, in countries such as South Korea, for example, renewables reach just 63% of the electricity supply, and in France 67%.

The study showed that, as countries build power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS), it’s expected to run on the fuel that has traditionally dominated the national power mix. The report added, “In Asia, that is predominantly coal, while in the Americas it is natural gas. In Europe, both are used. In economies that use CCS in the power sector, most combine it with gas in the NZS.”

It further found that “Nuclear plays an important role in several economies’ pathway to net zero, including China, India, Southeast Asia, the US, Japan, and South Korea. In all these regions, the share of nuclear power will grow from 2023, especially in China and India. In Europe, the technology’s contribution falls despite further capacity buildout.”

Under the Net Zero Scenario, onshore wind and solar projects require 2.9 million square kilometers of land by 2050. That is almost 15 times more than was being used by the two technologies in 2023.  The study found that at the peak of biofuel demand in 2044, some 4.8 million km2 of land is needed to cultivate feedstock, comparable to the area covered by the European Union. Meanwhile, mines supplying the critical minerals needed for the net-zero pathway span 180,000 km2 by 2041, more than the area of Uruguay. The land requirements for biofuels and critical minerals ease slightly by 2050.

Land constraints in some countries mean the total land area suitable for solar and wind construction could face saturation in the NZS. South Korea, Vietnam, and Japan are most likely to encounter this problem, indicating a greater share of less-land-intensive technologies will be needed in the future, such as offshore wind, geothermal or nuclear.

The report is optimistic about the, no countries risk saturation in the ETS. It explained that there is still plenty of room for renewables growth in all geographies. To meet energy requirements in areas with low land availability, it suggested the use of land that meets the suitability criteria for solar or wind while also meeting fuel and food crops.
It lays importance on co-exist on, the same land that can shape future permitting and zoning rules. It particularly associates the rollout of low-carbon technologies to threaten food security.

Global electricity demand in the ETS grew by over 70% from 2023 to 43,000 Terawatt-hour in 2050

Technology Use To Abate Emission

BNEF report suggested the use of technology can reportedly, abate 15% of emissions. It further added another 12% comes from energy efficiency improvements, including demand-side efficiency gains in households, and buildings, and more recycling in industry.

Bloomberg’s report evaluated and found electrification of end uses second-biggest driver such as EVs, heap pumps in buildings, and industrial processes. The report evaluates the system flexibility which comes from both the demand and supply side. It explains that the power system based around variable wind and solar generation cannot work without sources of flexibility.

The report suggested the use of power system flexibility to bring a shift of 2,900 and 3,000 TW-hours energy in 2050.

The study evaluated and found, “This goes beyond simply adding more batteries to store excess electricity and discharge it when needed. Instead, flexibility needs to be an entire system solution that activates both supply and demand – a combination of demand response, increased interconnection, flexible ‘peaker’ plants, pumped storage, and smart EV charging. These are integrated using an extensive grid and managed using the latest digital technologies.”