IRENA’s 11.2 TW RE Target For 2030 Risks Falling Short By 1.5 TW: Report

IRENA's 11.2 TW RE Target For 2030 Falls Short By 1.5 TW: Report

Despite renewables becoming the fastest-growing source of power, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) latest report needs a minimum 16.4% growth rate annually through 2030 to stay on course, to meet the 2030 target. 

IRENA’s Renewable Energy Statistics 2024 report indicated the possible risk of missing the tripling renewables target pledge set at COP28. The world witnessed a 14% increase in renewables capacity during 2023 establishing a 10% compound annual growth rate (2017-2023). Combined with the constantly decreasing additions of non-renewable capacity over the years (besides retirement of older plants), the trend sees renewable energy on its way to overtake fossil fuels in global installed power capacity.

However, the report outlined that, if last year’s 14% increase rate continues, the tripling target of 11.2 Terawatts (TW) in 2030 outlined by IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario will fall 1.5 TW short, missing the target by 13.5%. Furthermore, if the world keeps the historic annual growth rate of 10%, it will only accumulate 7.5 TW of renewables capacity by 2030, missing the target by almost one-third.

The annual growth rate of 10%, will only accumulate 7.5 TW of renewables capacity by 2030,

IRENA Director-General, Francesco La Camera said, “Renewable energy has been increasingly outperforming fossil fuels, but it is not the time to be complacent. Renewables must grow at a higher speed and scale. Our new report sheds light on the direction of travel; if we continue with the current growth rate, we will only face failure in reaching the tripling renewables target agreed in the UAE Consensus at COP28, consequently risking the goals of the Paris Agreement and 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.”

In power generation, the latest data available for 2022 confirmed yet again the regional disparity in renewables deployment. Asia holds its position as a leader in global renewable power generation with 3 749 Terawatt hours (TWh), followed for the first time by North America (1 493 TWh). The most impressive jump occurred in South America, where renewable power generation increased by nearly 12% to 940 TWh, due to a hydropower recovery and a greater role of solar energy.

With a modest growth of 3.5%, Africa increased its renewable power generation to 205 TWh in 2022, despite the continent’s tremendous potential and immense need for rapid, sustainable growth. Acknowledging the urgent need for support and finance, IRENA is advancing the Accelerated Partnership for Renewables in Africa (APRA) initiative and is preparing an investment forum focused on APRA’s member countries later this year.