India’s Solar Future Faces Climate Challenge, Says IIT-Delhi Study

India’s rapid solar energy expansion aims to power its climate commitments, yet new research reveals that climate change could pose significant challenges to the nation’s solar potential. A study from IIT Delhi (Dr. Sushovan Ghosh, Prof. Dilip Ganguly, Prof.Sagnik Dey, Mr.Subhojit Ghoshal Chowdhury), published in Environmental Research Letters (https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad8c68), examines India’s photovoltaic (PV) potential through 2041-2050 using advanced climate models.

The findings indicate that India’s PV efficiency could decline nationally by 2.3% to 3.3%, depending on climate and pollution mitigation scenarios. With temperatures projected to rise, PV cells in solar-rich areas like the Thar Desert and Gujarat may experience efficiency losses for an additional 18 to 26 days per year, leading to power losses as high as 840 GWh annually—enough to power thousands of homes. The study shows that reduced solar radiation and increased cell temperatures are the primary causes of this decline.

Interestingly, weaker climate action coupled with strong air pollution control could offset some PV Power losses, while moderate climate action with higher pollution would see larger radiation declines. This dual impact underscores the importance of addressing both climate and air quality for future solar success.

The study highlights the need for climate-resilient solar technologies and comprehensive policies. “India’s solar potential is strong, but
climate resilience must be part of the strategy to secure a sustainable energy future,” says lead researcher Dr. Sushovan Ghosh. By focusing on both clean air and climate goals, India can safeguard its solar future against evolving climate threats.

To assess the direct effects of climate change on PV productivity in India, this study presents the projected changes in PV potential between the baseline period (1985–2014) and the mid-century (2041–2050). The analysis considers two scenarios: SSP245, which involves intermediate air pollution control and climate mitigation, and SSP585, characterized by strong air pollution control but weaker climate action. The 30-year average annual PV energy potential shows that the northern (0.24), southern (0.23), and western (0.22) power grids have the highest potential, while the eastern (0.2) and north-eastern (0.18) grids have the lowest.

However, by mid-century, both SSP scenarios project an overall decline in PV potential compared to the baseline, with a national average decrease of -3.3% under SSP245 and -2.3% under SSP585. The decline is expected to be more pronounced under SSP245 than SSP585,
due to differing levels of air pollution mitigation and climate actions in each scenario.

In SSP245, the eastern power grid, particularly the eastern Indo Gangetic Plain (IGP) is expected to experience the highest decline (-5.1%), followed by the northern (-3.4%), north eastern (-3%), and southern (-2.3%) grids. In contrast, under SSP585, the western grid is projected to have the largest drop (-2.7%), followed by the northern (-2.4%), eastern (-2.2%), and lowest over north-eastern (-1.1%) grids. Interestingly, some areas within the northeastern power grid and southwestern coast of the southern power grid (Kerala) are expected to
experience a slight increase in PV potential.

Seasonally, the highest PV potential is observed during the pre-monsoon period (March-May, MAM: 0.28), followed by the monsoon (June-August, JJA: 0.22), post-monsoon (September-November, SON: 0.20), and winter (December-February, DJF: 0.19). On a national scale, both scenarios predict a decrease in PV potential across all seasons compared to the baseline, with the smallest decline occurring during the monsoon season. In SSP245, the most significant drop in ∆𝑃𝑉𝑃𝑜𝑡 is anticipated during the winter, particularly over the eastern IGP within the eastern power grid, followed by the post-monsoon season. In SSP585, the post monsoon and pre-monsoon periods are expected to experience the greatest declines nationwide, except for the parts of the northeastern and southern power grids (southwest coast near Kerala)