India’s Renewable Energy Capacity To Reach 54% By 2047: NREL

India's Renewable Energy Capacity To Reach 54% By 2047: NREL

A recent report by the United States (US)-based organization National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) anticipated an increase in the share of renewable energy (RE) generation from wind and solar in India to reach 54 percent by 2047.

The NREL report evaluated, “In the base scenario, investments in battery storage are economic in 2030 is expected to increase as a result of projected decreases in capital costs and increasing deployment of VRE resources.  Complemented by battery storage it can shift energy from high-renewable energy (RE) periods to high-load periods.”

The report added, “Alternative scenarios whereby solar PV or battery costs decline faster than forecast revealed batteries could become economic as early as 2024. Currently, India has currently reached the target of deploying 175 gigawatts (GW) from renewable energy (RE) by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from RE by 2030. “

The increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raised new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs.

It added, “An anticipated changes in component costs can drive a significant shift in the electricity supply with wind, solar photovoltaics (PV), and battery storage becoming increasingly competitive with thermal capacity. In the Base scenario, the share of installed capacity from coal decreases from 57% in 2017 to 19% in 2047, and the contribution from wind and solar increases from 17% to 58% over the same period.”

It found, “The share of generation from wind and solar reaches 54% by 2047. In the Base scenario, investments in battery storage are economic in 2030 as a result of projected decreases in capital costs and increasing deployment of VRE resources, which are complemented by battery storage’s ability to shift energy from high-RE periods to high-load periods. Alternative scenarios whereby solar PV or battery costs decline faster than forecast reveal batteries could become economic as early as 2024.”

It further explained, “By 2047, VRE resources account for 58% of installed capacity and 54% of energy supplied with no curtailment. The share of VRE generation could increase more if battery costs decline faster than anticipated. An alternative scenario assuming capital costs for batteries decline at twice the rate forecast in the Base scenario finds VRE could provide 66% of annual energy.”

Capital Cost 

The report anticipated, “Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. The lower solar costs, lower wind costs, and lower battery costs scenarios showcased different future trajectories for capital costs for solar PV, wind, and BESS technologies, respectively, by assuming capital costs decline more rapidly than in the Base scenario. For each technology, we include five sensitivities whereby the 2047 capital cost is 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, or 50% lower than projected in the Base scenario.

Based on guidance from CEA, “All subcritical coal and diesel plants are retired by 2047, most new investments are from supercritical coal, wind, solar PV and BESS technologies. Figure 15 summarizes the net annual investments by technology, differentiating prescribed and economic investments. Prescribed investments, outlined in red, are capacity additions already underway or planned that are exogenously assigned. Economic investments, outlined in black, are investment decisions based on least-cost criteria.”

A key driver of the different investment pathways is the correlation between solar and wind generation and electricity demand. Figure 26 compares the generation by time-slice in the Base, low battery cost (BESS-50), low solar cost (PV-50), and low wind cost (Wind 40) scenarios.

Lower capital costs for wind have a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the costs of BESS or solar PV. This is because wind resources are better correlated than solar resources with the seasons and times of day when demand is highest. However, wind resources experience very high seasonal variability. Increasing wind capacity (Wind-40 scenario) actually increases investments in gas CT to provide energy in October-November, when wind output is low