India May Add 30 GW Of Renewable Capacities In 2024-25

India's renewable capacity additions in 2024 have seen a surge.

India seems to be racing towards achieving a record-breaking renewable capacity addition number in 2024-25. The rise in pace of solar and wind energy installations in the first seven months of calendar year 2024 indicates every probability of record capacity additions. This will follow a strong show in 2023, when 18.5 GW of renewable energy was added to the grid. 

In fact, in the best case scenario, the country is likely to add 30 GW of new renewable energy capacities in the current fiscal (2023-24). Insiders however indicate the final figure could be closer to 24-26 GW, if all goes well. Ratings firm CRISIL Ratings has also indicated the possibility of 50 GW of renewable energy in the next two years.

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An analysis of the renewable energy capacity additions revealed that India added 13,889 MW of solar energy in the first seven months of calander year of 2024. This was against the 7842 MW of solar power added in the first seven months of 2023. This 77% surge in the solar power additions during the period, comes at a time when solar EPCs have also reported record high order books. SaurEnergy’s own research has tracked a further 5 GW plus of projects that will be commissioned during the year, based on public announcements by firms. Add to that the quickening pace of additions on rooftop solar and solar pumps under government backed schemes,  besides C&I segment additions, and you have strong indicators of a record year.

On an average India added 1984 MW of solar power in 2024 since January against the average of 1120 MW in 2023 during the same period. If India goes with the same average pace, it is now set to see additions of around 23,810 MW of new solar power capacity additions at the end of financial year 2024-25. This is contrast to the total of 15 GW of solar power India added in 2023-24.

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On the wind front, India had added a total of 3.2 GW of total wind power capacities in 2023-24. However, the pace of wind power additions have also escalated in the current year. During the first seven months of 2024, India added 2,339 MW of wind energy capacities with an average of 334 MW of monthly additions. This contrasts very favorably to 2023 when during the same period, India added a total of 2,010 MW of wind energy capacities. Again, wind turbine firms are all sitting on record order books, and capacity utilisation, as seen in their surging stock prices as well after years. 

India’s renewable capacities (fuel-wise). Capacities in MW. Source: MNRE

If India continues to add new solar and wind energy capacities, it is likely to add around 24 GW of new solar capacities and 4 GW of wind energy capacities in the best case. In addition to the total of 28 GW of expected wind and solar capacities, 2 GW of additional clean power is likely to come from small hydro, biomass/cogeneration and waste to energy projects. Thus, going by the current pace, India’s total capacity in 2024-25 (FY25) is likely to be around 30 GW.

Several companies and rating agencies, think tanks have already expected number additions in FY25 based on the rise in investments in the sector, green projects in the pipeline and the quantum of tenders. the fact that Hybrid tenders, RTC and FDRE tenders are gaining share also means good news for wind energy.   For example, based on the quantum of tenders and wind projects in the pipeline, the top management of Indian wind energy company Suzlon in its latest investors call estimated a total of 5-5.5 GW of new wind power additions in 2024. 

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“This year, we are expecting anywhere between 5 to 5.5 GW is what country will do compared to 3,250 MW what we did last financial year. … Why we are saying this also is the reason is that one is gradually we hope these hurdles on the ground will get removed, because more and more capable people are coming in and then there are some advanced actions being taken on the land and also the Government of India as we mentioned last time has now started acting on removing the hurdles for wind,” JP Chalasani, Group CEO of Suzlon said in the investors call. 

Large Developers Committed To Additions

From Adani Green to NTPC to ReNew, Avaada, Tata Power and more, some of India’s largest green developers are all committed to GW plus numbers this year.

Adani Green, the renewable arm of Adani Group alone plans to add 5-6 GW of new renewable capacities in FY25 alone. As per the management, the firm plans to add around 1 GW of wind power alone during the fiscal while it has plans to add more solar and hybrid power projects with a special focus on boosting the renewable power at Khavda renewable power. JSW Energy on the other hand has bagged multiple storage tenders, that will no doubt help in the eventual addition of more green energy to the grid safely.

CRISIL report on renewable investments in India.

Domestic Modules Supply, And Many Other Hurdles Resolved, For Now

For solar developers, all this surging demand comes at a time when enlisted domestic Indian module manufacturing capacity under MNRE’s Solar ALMM (Approved List of Models and Manufacturers) has surpassed 50 GW, and the Union budget has also allowed use of other previously restricted imported items for the use of solar cell and solar module manufacturing. Despite the high tariffs on imports, thanks to a drop in global (China) input costs, modules today are as cheap as they have ever been, even when sourced domestically. That multiple local developers like ReNew , Avaada have also ventured into manufacturing themselves will not hurt at all.    

On top of that is the resolution of the GIB issue where projects worth over 20 GW are stuck, and the strong push in laggard states like UP that will support some extra capacity additions.

The ramp up in capacity is needed for more than one reason. Besides the obvious country targets, there is the small matter of arresting a slide back to dependence on thermal power, which has taken place over the past two years. Even as plans are being dusted off for more coal backed power, a sustained surge in renewables it is hoped, will allow at least some of those old files to be put back where they belong, in the trash can ideally.