India, China To See Major Rise of Power Generation Emissions By 2024: IEA

AmpIn Energy Transition to Electrify Eastern India with 600 MW Renewable Energy

The latest report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) released today claimed that while the power demands in advanced economies are slated to plunge, they will likely go up for South Asian countries like India and China. It also said that while the emissions from power generation are slated to slump in Europe, it is likely to rise in India and China. 

The international report took a sneak peek at the electricity market worldwide, analyzing the sector’s performance in 2022 and looking forward based on the available data and forecasting. The report said the strong post-pandemic recovery and intense heatwaves drove India’s electricity demand up by 8.4% in 2022. 

“We expect the strong growth trend to continue in 2023 at a rate of 6.8%. Growth of 6.1% is forecast in 2024, by when India’s electricity consumption is expected to surpass that of Japan and Korea combined. The rapidly increasing demand in India will continue to be driven by an uptick in household appliances, a rise in electrical machinery usage, an increase in electric vehicles, and further expansion in cooling systems,” it said.

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The IEA report said that the substantial demand declines in advanced economies contrasted sharply with the growth observed in emerging economies such as China and India.

“Japan is similarly expected to record a significant 3% fall in electricity demand in 2023, while the US is set to see a decrease of almost 2%. In contrast, China’s electricity demand is expected to increase by 5.3% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2024, slightly below its 2015-2019 average of 5.4%. India is set to have an average annual growth rate of 6.5% over the outlook period, surpassing its 2015- 2019 average of 5.2%,” the report said. 

Emissions from power generation

The report also highlighted that despite the tremendous rise of renewable energy in these two countries, the emissions from power generation in China and India are slated to rise. In contrast, several advanced countries could see a decline in the segment.

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“Increases in emissions from power generation in China and India are expected to be more than offset by declines in other regions. The European Union alone accounts for 40% of the total decline in emissions from power generation expected to occur in 2023 and 2024, excluding China and India. The EU is followed by the United States, where renewables deployment is growing strongly, and gas is increasingly replacing coal-fired supply,” the report said.

It also added, “Out to 2024, the major increases in power generation emissions will mostly be in China and India due to their growing coal use. However, these increases are more than offset by projected declines in other regions. The European Union alone makes up 40% of the total decline expected outside China and India, as generation from fossil fuels is set to fall substantially.”

The report said that although coal-based power is expected to increase in India, renewable growth also would be able to meet the rising electricity demand in the country.

“Solar generation also increased strongly in H1 2023 by 26% compared to previous year. We forecast coal-fired generation in India for the full year to increase by 4.2%, and to continue its increase in 2024, albeit at a slower pace of 2.5%, as renewables and nuclear are expected to expand significantly to meet a higher share of the growing electricity demand,” the report said.