ICE VS BEV: Which Contributes Higher Carbon Emissions Across Their Lifetime?

Rystad, an energy research based organisation, has shared a report declaring batteries in electric vehicles (BEV), as a clear winner in reducing emissions in the transportation sector. The report says that despite incurring higher emissions in the manufacturing process of electric vehicles and an enduring reliance on fossil fuel power generation in many countries, the positive environmental impact of switching to a BEV over the vehicle’s lifetime is unmistakable.

The research organisation’s analysis shows that battery-powered vehicles can contribute at most half the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2) of diesel or gasoline cars across their lifecycle. The report cautions that despite countries having power grids dominated by fossil fuels, battery-powered cars can emit about 50% of the CO2 in an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. The report mentions that renewable sources can replace coal and gas-fired generation, emissions related to the operation of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) could drop by 86%.

ICE Vs BEV

The report based on the current power generation mix in China, states that lifecycle emissions of a BEV are about 39 tonnes of CO2e versus almost 85 tonnes for an ICE vehicle. The report draws comparison between the US, whose BEV emits 42 tonnes of CO2 across its life in the US. This the report compares is 58% lower than a gasoline or diesel vehicle that emits more than 100 tonnes. The report attributes the totals, emissions to extraction, refining and burning of fossil fuels that contribute about 90% of all ICE emissions. The report says that the breakdown of emissions across a battery-powered vehicle’s life is directly tied to its electricity consumption and how that power is generated. The research says that switching to a BEV will reduce long-term emissions despite a larger environmental impact.

Comparative Study
The study on five countries for the analysis includes – China, the US, India, Germany and France – due to their diverse transportation factors like driving patterns, type of vehicle dominant in each country and varying power mixes, both historical and forecast. Germany and France were chosen to reflect the European market in general and assess different power mixes, keeping other factors mostly similar.

The report mentioned that it used base case power generation forecasts for each country when evaluating lifecycle emissions to accurately reflect the evolving nature of electricity generation and its impact on BEV emissions. Each vehicle is expected to last 18 years, after which age most vehicles are scrapped.

The Power Market Holds the Key
A country’s power mix will play a significant role in determining how quickly emissions reduction can be achieved when switching to BEVs. Whereas, the report says that the ICE vehicles become more emissions heavy as they age, while BEVs will emit less over the years as power generation becomes greener. The report gives an example of the USA, as a base case scenario predicting that the development of the US power grid, battery-powered cars will emit just 14% of the emissions equivalent from a gasoline or diesel car in 2041.

The report gives stark contrasts that can also be found in regions where most other factors are similar. The report compares Germany and France, and finds that only deviation is in the emissions intensity of the grid. France, largely dominated by nuclear power, has about an 84% lower carbon intensity than Germany, which relies heavily on gas generation, says the report. Hence, the study highlights that the emissions from charging an electric vehicle in France will be about 70% lower, resulting in around 37% lower lifecycle emissions.

The report performs the same comparison for a coal-heavy power mix, in the case of India, results in 43% lower lifecycle emissions. It finds that overall, adopting BEVs – even in a status quo power mix future – will be beneficial to the environment, especially in countries with high annual mileage like the US.

How Much CO2 Can Electric Vehicle Sales Displace?

This power-mix analysis estimates that the volume of emissions avoided through BEV sales, assuming driving distance is the same across both vehicle types. The report investigates the average displacement factor, which varies widely by country depending on driving patterns and model availability. The report cites an example of China’s low annual average mileage and widespread BEV model availability, which leads to an almost 1:1 emissions displacement factor. However, in the US, BEV adoption can vary hugely from state to state. The report cites the example of California which has an almost 1:1 displacement factor, but the national average is estimated at 0.6, whereas the European countries have anywhere from a 0.8 to 1.1 displacement factor.

Conclusion

The report illustrates that 5 million passenger BEVs were sold in China in 2022, versus 17 million ICE cars. Assuming each of these BEVs emit 39 tonnes CO2e in the lifetime and an ICE emits 85 tonnes CO2e, therefore, according to the report, the ICE sales would emit 1.4 gigatonnes CO2. Thus, the report concludes that in total, while the BEVs sold will add about 200 million tonnes of CO2 to the environment, whereas, if the same 5 million BEVs had been ICEs, added emissions would have been around 430 million tonnes CO2. As a result, the BEVs result in a lifecycle emissions reduction of 230 million tonnes CO2e, which is almost 14% of total passenger car emissions. A similar analysis in the US shows this figure at 25 million tonnes CO2.