EVs to Dominate Global Passenger Cars, Buses Sales by 2040: BNEF

However, the heavy trucks sales will be limited to only 19 per cent in 2040 and will prove the hardest segment for electrics to crack, and their use case will mostly be in shorter-distance applications.

One of the leading research firm Bloomberg NEF (BNEF) in it’s annual outlook for 2019 has analysed that electric vehicles (EVs) will take up 57 per cent of the global sales of passenger car by 2040, which is slightly higher as compared to it’s previous year forecast.

It further added that, electric buses are set to hold 81 per cent sales of municipal buses by the same date.

As per the BNEF report, EVs are on track to dominate global passenger cars and buses sales by 2040, and to encroach significantly on the market for vans and short-distance trucking.

Further, the projections from the research firm analysed that electric models will take up 56 per cent of light commercial vehicle sales in Europe, the United States and China within next 2 decades, plus 31 per cent of medium commercial market.

However, the heavy trucks sales will be limited to only 19 per cent in 2040 and will prove the hardest segment for electrics to crack, and their use case will mostly be in shorter-distance applications.

On the flip side, conventional heavy trucks on long-haul routes will also face other, non-electric competition from alternatives using natural gas and hydrogen fuel cells.

Commenting on the report, BNEF, Head of Advanced Transport, Colin McKerracher said, “Our conclusions are stark for fossil fuel use in road transport. Electrification will still take time because the global fleet changes over slowly but, once it gets rolling in the 2020s, it starts to spread to many other areas of road transport. We see a real possibility that global sales of conventional passenger cars have already passed their peak.”

“Providers of shared mobility services will choose to go electric faster than private individuals. There are now over a billion users of shared mobility services such as ride-hailing globally. These services will continue to grow and gradually reduce demand for private vehicle ownership,” said Ali Izadi-Najafabadi, who leads BNEF’s coverage of shared mobility.

Meanwhile, the main driver for electrification trend over next 20 years will be further sharp reduction in EV battery costs, cheaper electric cars than internal combustion engine (ICE) alternatives by the mid-to-late 2020s in almost every market, on the basis of both lifetime costs and upfront costs.