EVs Could Account for 43% of Total Vehicle Sales in India by 2030: CEEW-CEF

CEEW-CEF has revealed that according to its high adoption scenario, EVs could account for 43% of the total new vehicle sales in India by 2030.

A new study by the CEEW – Centre for Energy Finance (CEF) has analysed segment-wise electric vehicle (EV) sales, battery requirements, public charging infrastructure necessary, and the investments needed until 2030 to support India’s EV transition. It has revealed that according to its high adoption scenario, EVs are expected to account for 43 percent of the total new vehicle sales by 2030.

• • India’s 2030 vision of e-mobility (i.e. 70 percent of all commercial cars, 30 percent of private cars, 40 percent of buses, and 80 percent of two-wheeler (2W) and three-wheeler (3W) sales to be electric by 2030) translates into 102 million EVs.

The report adds that India’s 2030 vision for electric mobility presented by NITI Aayog is a mammoth market opportunity. Realising this vision can make India’s EV sector an important driver of its post-COVID-19 economic recovery. It can generate jobs and economic value across the value chain, including in the existing industries and creating new sectors.

Thus, the high adoption scenario, which is 10 percent above the vision, suggests EVs could account for 43 percent of the total new vehicle sales. However, this could go down to 23 percent in the case of low adoption scenario, which is 40 percent below the vision.

Impact of the transition: 

1. 158 GWh of battery demand by FY30: Commercial cars are expected to lead the replacement demand for batteries and 2-wheelers to lead battery demand based on new vehicle sales.
2. 102 million EVs by FY30 would need deployment of 2.9 million public chargers. Slow chargers are expected to account for 71 percent of the total public chargers’ deployment by FY30
3. EV sales present an investment opportunity of Rs 12,39,800 crore (USD 177 billion) for OEMs in vehicle production, Rs 20,600 crore (USD 2.9 billion) for the deployment of charging infrastructure, Rs 85,900 crore (USD 12.3 billion) in battery manufacturing and Rs 14,42, 400 crore (USD 206 billion) revenue opportunity from end-consumers.

The report identifies access to capital as one of the key barriers to fulfilling the 2030 vision. “Investments required for India’s mobility transition is enormous and mobilising the investments to finance OEMs, battery manufacturers, charging stations, and end consumers will require targeted and systemic policy support and shifts in market design, business models, and financial structuring,” it adds.

Key recommendations to address barriers in accessing capital: