Emerging Nations To Account For 85% Electricity Demand By 2027-IEA

Emerging Nations To Compose 85% Electricity Demand By 2027, Finds IEA

Global electricity demand rose by 4.3% in 2024 and is forecast to continue growing at close to 4% through 2027. Over the next three years, global electricity consumption is expected to rise by 3,500 TWh, according to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Moreover, the study found most additional electricity demand through 2027 is expected to come from emerging economies, which the IEA projects will account for 85% of the growth.

The IEA data showed a sharp acceleration compared to the 2.5% increase in 2023 when strong gains in China, India, and Southeast Asia were tempered by declines in advanced economies. The report forecasted that emerging and developing economies, led by China, will be the main drivers of electricity demand growth.

The IEA research found that in 2024, more than half of the global electricity demand growth came from China, where demand increased by 7%, similar to the previous year. Electricity demand in China is forecast to rise by an average of 6% annually through 2027. India, Southeast Asian countries, and other emerging markets are also expected to record strong demand growth, driven by economic expansion and rising air conditioner ownership, among other things. India’s electricity demand is projected to grow at an average of 6.3% annually over the next three years, exceeding the 2015-2024 average growth rate of 5%.

While many emerging economies are experiencing robust electricity demand growth, Africa is lagging. The report highlighted that despite significant progress in recent years, 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to reliable electricity.

Electricity Demand Growth

Wholesale electricity prices declined in some regions, but higher volatility underscores the need for more flexibility. In the European Union, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States, wholesale electricity prices fell by around 20% on average in 2024 compared to the previous year, broadly in line with the decline in global energy commodity prices. However, prices in these regions—except for the United States and the Nordic region in Europe—remain significantly above pre-COVID levels.

Solar Demand in Developing Countries

India’s peak electricity load has grown significantly in recent years, rising from 148 GW in 2014 to 250 GW (+68%) in 2024. This increase was driven by the rapid expansion of industry, agricultural development, improved electricity access, and the rising use of air conditioning and household appliances in the residential and commercial sectors. Consequently, electricity demand in these sectors increased by approximately 60-65% between 2014 and 2024.

Global Change In Electricity Generation

Solar PV is expected to continue its rapid growth, while coal-fired power generation stabilizes. The Asia-Pacific region saw a sharp 6% rise in electricity demand in 2024, contributing to nearly 75% of the total global increase. China and India were the primary drivers, with electricity demand growing by 7% and 5.8%, respectively, accounting for 85% of the region’s consumption increase.

China’s growth was largely fueled by a stronger industrial sector, rising cooling demand, and the expansion of data centers and 5G networks. Meanwhile, India’s robust economy and higher cooling needs amid severe heatwaves supported increased demand. The region is expected to register electricity demand growth of 5.2% between 2025 and 2027.