Electrification Key For 1.5°C Target, Global Demand Must Go Beyond 30K TW: IRENA

Electrification Key For 1.5°C Target, Global Demand Must Go Beyond 30K TW: IRENA

Electricity and electrification along with deployment of renewable power will play a crucial role in meeting the target of 1.5°C, according to a report by IRENA. The overall share of renewable energy in the energy mix will need to rise substantially to meet the 1.5°C target, driven by higher shares of renewable electricity and electrification, but also end-use renewables, biofuels, and green hydrogen. In recent years the share of renewable energy in final energy consumption has been in the range of 17-18%; this will need to increase to as much as 80%. An additional benefit of electrification is that it can also improve energy-efficient energy use, thereby reducing energy intensity.

Renewable power is increasingly the least-cost form of electricity. IRENA also stated that the direct use of electricity must rise in the energy system far beyond the current share of 20% and reach half or more of the final energy by 2050 in a 1.5°C-compatible energy system.

Electrification will be the key enabling solution for reaching 1.5°C. By 2030, global electricity demand will need to rise to more than 30,000 terawatt hours (TWh), and by 2050 to over 75,000 TWh, according to a report by IRENA. Renewables are to supply over half of all electricity by 2030 and as much as 90% by 2050, requiring thousands of gigawatts of new renewables-based generation capacity. For instance, just in the short term, offshore wind capacity will need to grow to 380 GW by 2030, an increase of around six-fold compared to the 58 GW that was in operation as of 2021. This upsurge in electrification will require annual additions averaging 35 GW per year in this decade, compared with just an average of 3 GW per year, the IRENA report stated.

Overall investment in the energy system will need to increase by about one-third by 2050 in the 1.5°C Scenario compared to the Planned Energy Scenario, led by higher initial investment needs for some energy transition technologies and their associated enabling infrastructures. The G20 comprises the world’s highest emitters today accounting for around 80% of global emissions. It is of particular importance that the four largest members of the G20 – China, India, the European Union, and the United States – representing around 60% of global emissions must take action as their role is crucial, the report stated.