Delhi’s Grid Flexibility To Cut Peak Demand By 4 GW: RMI

Delhi’s Grid Flexibility To Cut Peak Demand By 4 GW: RMI

RMI’s recent report highlighted changes in Delhi’s power grid system, which has utilized grid flexibility technologies to manage and mitigate increasing demand peaks in the city.

RMI estimates suggest that by 2030, Delhi could reduce 250–1,350 megawatts (MW) of peak demand through air conditioning (AC) demand response (DR) programs. It is estimated that grid flexibility technologies could lead to up to 400 MW of demand-shifting potential through the managed charging of the electric bus (e-bus) fleet and 500–2,500 MW of shiftable demand through battery energy storage systems (BESS).

Combined as VPPs, these measures could unlock maximum demand reductions of nearly 4,000 MW

RMI’s analysis indicates that the adoption of space-cooling appliances (ACs and space coolers), e-buses, and commercial four-wheeler EVs could account for about 6,000 MW of Delhi’s annual peak demand, roughly 50% by 2030.

On the other hand, the Indian electricity sector has reportedly seen significant changes since 2014. RMI’s report elaborated, since then the electricity demand has grown by over 50%, and peak demand has increased by almost 80%. This has according to the study led to a 70% increase in the country’s power generation capacity over this period to meet the growing demand.

The report further added that Delhi’s peak electricity demand is expected to grow by 50% this decade, with renewable energy (RE) projected to account for 50% of the city’s power supply during the same period. Moreover, RMI’s report foresees an increase in renewable energy capacity, which is projected to change the generation mix from FY23 to FY30. This change will be seen in the share of solar-powered electricity, which is expected to grow from 5% in 2023 to 21% in 2030.

Similarly, wind generation is expected to see a spike from 2% to 11%, while hydropower is projected to increase from 8% to 11%. This shift is expected to lead to a simultaneous decline in coal-powered generation, which is expected to decrease significantly, from about 60% to 37%, to accommodate the increased RE generation.

Projected Change In Energy Mix Between FY23 and FY30

On the other hand,, the report expects a change in Delhi’s gas generation share, which is also expected to decline, from 11% to 4% of total generation. Whereas, the market purchases are projected to increase, reflecting the need for flexible resources to meet Delhi’s rising and peak demand.

The report gave hourly dispatch patterns, which revealed a change in operational changes required from the power system between FY23 and FY30. Exhibit 12 shows summer and winter hourly average dispatches for FY23 and FY30, as optimized through RMI’s production cost model. In FY23, thermal generation (coal, nuclear, and natural gas) provided baseload power across winter and summer. Increased coal, hydro, and gas-powered generation met Delhi’s late evening and night peak demand across both seasons. Solar generation aligns well with Delhi’s afternoon peaks but is unable to meet evening peak demand. Short-term market purchases fill the supply-demand gap throughout the day as needed.

The study foresees that by FY30, wind, and hydro generation will provide additional electricity throughout the day. Solar generation will grow substantially and align with Delhi’s afternoon peak demand. Meeting the night peak demand will require gas generation and market purchases. The coal-powered generation will also scale as needed, ramping down when it is economical to integrate solar-powered generation. The report projected that by enabling DR, managed EV charging, and battery storage could help meet peak demand, allowing Delhi to save on high-cost gas generation and market purchases.

RMI’s analysis indicates that the adoption of space-cooling appliances (ACs and space coolers), e-buses, and commercial four-wheeler EVs could account for about 6,000 MW of Delhi’s annual peak demand, roughly 50% by 2030. As most of this demand occurs throughout the day and is seasonal (mostly space cooling), Delhi will experience periods of sharp peak demand. Meeting these peaks can significantly elevate power procurement costs and require major distribution infrastructure upgrades, along with operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, which can, in turn, lead to higher electricity tariffs and system reliability challenges.

Grid flexibility will be instrumental in the redesign of Delhi’s grid, as it can help mitigate the impact of seasonal variations and intermittent peak demand, while also taking advantage of the increasing RE penetration on the grid. This report provides a comprehensive overview of the grid flexibility measures in Delhi and quantifies the peak savings and economic benefits that can be achieved by each measure. The analysis suggests that adopting grid flexibility measures can unlock a range of benefits compared to the costs needed to implement them, highlighting that investments in scaling these measures can be lucrative.