China’s ‘Spare Solar’ Capacity Offers Energy Access Avenues: EMBER

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A recent report by EMBER delved into the untapped potential of surplus solar manufacturing capacity in China, highlighting its pivotal role in addressing both energy access and climate change. It revealed that despite the exponential growth in global solar manufacturing capacity, the deployment of solar panels worldwide lags significantly behind.

According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA) , the current trajectory of solar deployment would elevate global installed capacity from 1,550 GW in 2023 to 5,023 GW by 2030. Yet, by harnessing the ‘spare’ solar capacity of 3,837 GW, this figure could soar by over 75%, reaching 8,855 GW by 2030.

The difference of 3,837 GW can be regarded as ‘spare’ manufacturing capacity according to the report, as it represents solar panels that could be produced, installed, and used, but under current targets and deployment projections, will not be.China has recently reported an increased use of spare solar capacity addition, EMBER report estimates 843 TWh of electricity would be required compared with 2022 which delivered 167 TWh higher than just meeting the expected demand growth.

This could be delivered by deploying an additional 112 GW of solar capacity, bringing the required deployment to 566 GW, just one-seventh of the ‘spare’ solar manufacturing output. Improving electricity access is a complex issue, and the report does not imply that ‘spare’ solar represents a complete solution. However, the scale of the ‘spare’ capacity could make a significant contribution if deployment were supported appropriately.

China currently according to the study holds the vast majority (80-85%) of solar manufacturing plants, and supporting the deployment of ‘spare’ solar capacity in the developing world presents a significant opportunity for the country. It would reportedly allow the country to deliver national gains, in addition to helping deliver global goals on development and climate change. The study findings also supported that, “However, the scale of the ‘spare’ capacity relative to the size of the expected demand increase highlights the fact that the ‘spare’ solar capacity could make a significant contribution if deployment were supported appropriately.” 

In a projection exercise, the report found that extending electricity access to entire populations globally would necessitate an additional 112 GW of solar capacity by 2030, amounting to a mere one-seventh of the surplus manufacturing output. However, it’s essential to recognize that enhancing electricity access is a multifaceted challenge, and solar alone cannot provide a comprehensive solution. Nonetheless, the scale of the surplus solar capacity relative to the anticipated demand surge underscores its potential significance if appropriately supported.

The report underscores that investing in solar manufacturing could yield over twice the projected deployment capacity by the end of the decade. With solar generation poised to grow by 26% annually, it emerges as a critical tool in decarbonization efforts and is poised to dominate global electricity generation.

Despite such promising prospects, there remain challenges, particularly in bridging the gap between supply and demand. The report estimates that between 2024 and 2030, the solar panel manufacturing industry could supply 7,310 GW, while deployment is forecasted at only 3,473 GW, leaving a substantial ‘spare’ capacity of 3,837 GW. 

Thus, ‘Spare’ solar offers a win-win-win as per the report can deliver the global benefits that would accrue from supporting the deployment of ‘spare’ solar capacity. It can support solar energy deployment in Global South countries which can bring a range of added development benefits to those countries. It also holds the potential to create jobs in the installation and maintenance whilst reducing fossil fuel import costs.

The study also suggested that parts of the supply chain could be relocated in-country, as is already happening in Southeast Asia where companies are progressively moving from solar panel assembly to the manufacturing of upstream components such as solar cells and silicon wafers. It further predicted that, given the synergy between solar generation and battery storage, solar panel deployment on a significant scale would make countries more attractive destinations for investment in battery manufacturing, as is already happening in North Africa.