China’s March Towards 3000 GW Renewables By 2030, 2025 Solar Price Trends

In news from China, the National Energy Administration (NEA) of the country has confirmed that in 2024, China added 373 GW of renewable capacity.  This is a 23 percent year on year rise. Those additions, which accounted for 86% of all power capacity added, also took the share of renewables in total capacity to 56 percent. Renewables first crossed the 50 percent barrier in 2023. While solar dominated the new additions with 278 GW, Hydro (13.8 GW) and Wind (79.8 GW) added 94 GW, with the rest accounted by biomass.

The numbers follow a pattern of China consistently beating projections of capacity additions handily since 2021. Also, since 2022, China has consistently accounted for over 50% of global solar capacity additions. For what its worth in 2025, growth is projected to be less than 5%.

Readers will recall that China originally had a target of 1200 GW of solar plus wind by 2030, a number it has comprehensively broken through in 2024 itself, and now looks set to reach over 3000 GW by 2030 even at current rates of capacity additions.

The cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy stands at almost 1890 GW by the end of 2024, a 25 percent jump from the previous year. The breakup between Hydropower (436 GW), wind power (521 GW), solar power (887 GW), and biomass power for 46 GW indicating just how sharply solar has gained over the past three years, a lead it is set to widen further all the way to 2030. At  3.46 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2024, with a year-on-year rise of 19 percent, green energy accounting for about 35 percent of the total electricity generated.

While a faster than expected drop in solar costs due to overcapacity in China has been cited as one reason besides strong government support, the trend is expected to continue in the coming year as well, as costs remain low, even if a bottom seems to have been reached.

The first signs come from GCL Technology, a leading polysilicon maker in China that claims to have reduced the production cost of granular silicon, a key raw material used in solar panels, by 15 percent in the fourth quarter last year. At a cost of USD 3.9 per kg for granular polysilicon, GCL claims it will be profitable at existing market prices, ending the spiral of losses seen through all of last year.  Polysilicon prices have been hovering around USD 6 per Kg till last week. This higher efficiency in manufacturing is an indicator that final module prices may not be allowed to rise significantly in 2025, as China grapples with a slew of capacity coming up worldwide vis a vis its own overcapacity. Low prices and higher automation are expected to discourage planned additions in many countries that donot have high import barriers or large domestic markets.