China RE Installations To Grow 5 Times By 2050 With 5 TW Solar Capacity, Finds Study

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A recent report by Norwegian analyst DNV has shown that China will have more than quintuple renewable energy installations by 2050. Energy Transition Outlook China 2024 (ETO) report states that in the coming years, the Chinese energy mix will shift rapidly from one dominated by fossil fuels to one where renewable power plays a key role. The year 2031 is posited as a tipping point, as this is expected to be the point at which fossil fuel-generated electricity is no longer the single largest contributor to the Chinese energy mix, and will instead be replaced by solar as the largest single power source in China, stated the company.

According to the ETO, the contribution of solar to Chinese domestic electricity production will increase from 5% today to 38% by 2050, and new solar power installations will account for 58% of all new electricity generation capacity additions between now and the end of this decade. The report also sheds light on storage which is expected to play an increasingly vital role in the Chinese solar sector, too, with DNV estimating that, by 2050, 34% of all new Chinese solar capacity additions will be co-located with storage products.

Furthermore, to move as per predictions by DNV, China will have a mammoth 3.9TW of solar PV capacity, alongside 1.6TW of solar-plus-storage capacity, giving the Chinese solar sector a total installed capacity north of 5TW

China is responsible for 33% of the world’s energy-related CO2 emissions today, but this will reduce to 22% by 2050, a reduction in annual emissions of 8 GtCO₂. China’s power mix will shift from 30% renewable today to 88% by 2050, the ETO report predicted.

According to a report by S&P Global, China added a record 301 GW of renewable power generation capacity including solar, wind, and hydro in 2023, accounting for around 59% of the world’s total renewable capacity additions last year. It added 216 GW of solar PV capacity alone in 2023 which was equal to 14% of the world’s total installed solar PV capacity. China committed US$890 billion to the clean energy sectors, including solar power, electric vehicles, and batteries – a figure that would make up the majority of the US$1.8 trillion, according to a Bloomberg report.

On one hand, China’s domestic solar installation is attaining a peak but the solar module manufacturing sector might face hiccups as several nations implement protective policies to rein in the glut of supply from China and plunging prices. For example India’s new ALMM (Approved List of Module Manufacturers) regime took effect on April 1, it was time for many Chinese suppliers, who enjoyed a rush of orders from India till as late as February 2024, to evaluate future plans for the country.