China Adding Solar Capacity At 17 GW Per Month In 2024

Announcing the numbers on July 20, the NEA released numbers showing a growth of 30.68% in solar installs over the same period last year at 102.48GW. That augurs well for the rest of the year as well as the next two quarters usually see high activity.

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The surge in installations will surprise most experts who expected a tempering down in the pace of solar additions, after the record 216 GW in 2023. But they might have underestimated the impact of the low prices plaguing the local, and global manufacturing champions from China. With overcapacity rife, it has been difficult for most players to hold off production, as they wait to see some firms exit the market altogether due to the low prices.

The low prices are hurting the top line as well as bottomlines currently, as more and more firms slip into losses. Even the value of exports in H1, otherwise up in volume terms, has declined in value terms by 35% to $18.97 billion. Exports also offer no long term respite as tariff barriers (US and India) and anti trust investigations (EU) start biting soon. the only way out seems to be offshoring production to other markets, something the top 5 Chinese firms are doing aggressively now.

However, more interestingly, the scorching start to 2024 does mean that China is likely to reach its 2030 solar target by 2025 itself, five years ahead of schedule. That is based on a  target of 1200 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2030. A number it should reach by next year comfortably at current pace of installs in solar and wind.

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