Central, Eastern Europe Adds 39% Electricity From RE: EMBER

Central and Eastern European countries are advancing towards their renewables ambition, but EMBER report found it to be insufficient with their potential. 

The EMBER report on, “Empowering Central and Eastern Europe” underlines the importance of upcoming Three Seas Initiative Summit to secure a low cost, resilient and interconnected clean power system. It mentioned, “In 2023, renewable energy accounted for 39% of the electricity generated across the 3SI members, surpassing coal for the first time. In updated National Energy and Climate Plans, Three Seas countries increase wind and solar targets from 94 GW to 173 GW by 2030.”

The study reports, “Between 2023 and 2030 cross-border electricity flows are expected to increase by 53% across the 3SI region.
A mix of factors have fed into this. The main driver has been the declining costs of wind and solar. This drop has made wind and solar the cheapest source of electricity.”

It compared, “Previous NECPs, submitted in 2019, failed to propose ambitious climate targets. They substantially underestimated the pace of the energy transition, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. Goals set by countries like Romania, Czechia, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia were so low that their 2030 renewable electricity targets were already achieved by 2023. Poland had surpassed its 2030 solar capacity milestone already in March 2022.”

In total, 2030 renewable electricity targets across 3SI countries increased from 46% share in the previous National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) to 60% in the updated drafts. Expected 2030 wind and solar capacity grew significantly as well, from 94 GW in 2019 to 173 GW in the latest NECP drafts. Achieving this would mean more than doubling of wind and solar capacity in the region from 76 GW in 2023.

It mentioned, “Previous Ember analysis shows that 3SI countries can deploy 200 GW of solar, 60 GW of onshore wind and 23 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030. In total, this is a sizable 110 GW above what is expected under the most recent NECP drafts. This untapped potential could increase the share of renewables in electricity generation to 67% by 2030, surpassing the 60% suggested in the draft NECP updates, and lead to a further decrease in electricity prices. It would also provide sufficient power for electrification of heat and cooling in industry and buildings, and of mobility.”

It lays importance on de-risking measures such as, contracts-for-difference have been shown to lower the cost of renewable energy projects by some twenty percent. Implementing these measures is therefore necessary to ensure a roadmap of energy investments that will deliver on targets.

The study claimed, “It needs for interconnection will only increase in Three Seas Countries. This is especially true in Central and Eastern Europe, where planned interconnection capacity expansion is still minor compared to western Europe. Ember’s modelling indicates that annual cross-border electricity flows between 3SI countries are expected to increase by 53% between 2023 and 2030 as wind and solar projects are rolled out in line with ‘high’ industry forecasts. To meet this demand for interconnection capacity, new cross-border investments will be needed.”

The research proposes, “Developing a 3SIIF joint or pooled bond for financing projects that can contribute to regional energy transition with cross-border implications, including wind and solar farms and interconnectors. The main objective is to smooth and reduce the wide variance in costs of capital across 3SI countries.”

It elaborated, “As 3SI countries exit from fossil fuels, electrification and sector coupling driven by clean technologies will provide new opportunities for local communities. Going forward, the expansion of wind and solar can lead to independence from fossil fuel imports and turn the CEE region into a clean energy hub. This will improve the bloc’s energy security in the face of war, while also strengthening grid resilience, local economies and fostering innovation in an increasingly electrified world in the long term.”