CEA Report: Prices for Polysilicon & Solar Modules Will Start to Fall in 2023

According to data by Clean Energy Associates (CEA), solar module prices for foreign markets are anticipated to decline in parallel with predicted decreases in polysilicon prices as of 2023. Due to higher-than-anticipated European purchase volumes and constrained polysilicon supplies, the quality assurance and supply chain management company disclosed that module costs that had gone up through 2021-22 will start to decrease in 2023.

The current market environment will have an impact on future long-term purchases, hence CEA advises only purchasing modules two to three quarters out from delivery in its PV Price Forecasting Report (Q2 – 2022). Due to the prospect of an expansion of anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) to numerous Southeast Asian nations, module prices in the US greatly surpassed the firm’s previous projection.

Although President Joe Biden announced a two-year moratorium on additional tariffs on imports of solar energy from Southeast Asia, CEA stated that capabilities remain vulnerable to future rates, which has affected many suppliers’ expansion plans in the region and dimmed the outlook for cell and module growth. The analysis discovered that the US Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act’s implementation has led to increased shipment detentions for several of the top suppliers in the sector, raising fears that module supply in the US for the rest of 2022 may be more constrained than previously believed.

Polysilicon shortages have affected the solar sector since late 2020, but CEA report predicted that prices will decline during 2023 as significant manufacturing capacity comes online. The solar industry may anticipate deeper polysilicon price cuts if government action materialises, CEA stated, as China’s government has announced its desire to intervene in the polysilicon market to satisfy renewable installation objectives.

According to some other report, China’s electricity restriction last week contributed to an increase in the average price of polysilicon. The report stated that even long-term contract holders are feeling the pressures of high polysilicon pricing because there are relatively limited quantities outside of long-term contracts, even if long-term contract prices for polysilicon are anticipated to be less than spot market rates.

The price of large-scale polysilicon buyers is forecast to stay in the mid-US$30/kg area through the end of 2022, with the first price drops anticipated in Q1 2023 as the post-market rush in China, along with further polysilicon expansion, should shift the market toward oversupply.