BMW Must Prioritise Full-Electric Vehicles to Meet its 2030 Target: Analysis

BMW Group is targeting 7 million BEV and PHEV by 2030, however, WoodMac projects the company will only meet 61% of that stock target by 2030.

BMW Group – which is comprised of BMW, Mini, Rolls-Royce and Zinoro – is targeting 7 million in battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) stock by 2030, which would see over 1 million combined sales of these cars globally by the same date. However, Wood Mackenzie projects the company will only meet 61 percent (4.2 million) of that stock target by 2030. 

The analysis finds that the lack of a dedicated electric vehicle (EV) platform until 2025 is partially responsible for the predicted shortfall. Additionally, a current weak line-up of BEVs compared to PHEVs, with a continued focus on PHEVs until 2023, is likely to eat away at potential BEV sales.

Prachi Mehta, Wood Mackenzie Senior Research Analyst, said “to hit its 2030 targets, BMW Group’s global EV share would have to increase from 2 percent to 9 percent. Simultaneously, its BEV share of all sales would need to rise from 2 percent to 60 percent. Our analysis indicates that the company will not be able to achieve these numbers as it currently stands.

“In terms of strategy, BMW Group is focusing on lowering battery costs and securing battery raw material availability by directly sourcing from mines. It is also dabbling in manufacturing its own cells at its pilot battery cell plant, which will start operations by 2022, in addition to battery supply contracts.”

While Europe is BMW Group’s base with 47 percent of total sales, it has a significant footprint in North America and China, with both regions accounting for a combined 48 percent of all sales in 2020.

According to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, Europe will continue to be a major market for the company throughout the decade. However, European BEV and PHEV combined sales will only hit 41 percent of all car sales by 2030, compared to its 50 percent target for the region. BMW Group’s footprint in China will continue to grow, especially in the EV sector.

With the energy transition well underway, the company’s strategy also incorporates much-needed sustainability targets.

“The Group aims to reduce supply chain CO2 emissions per vehicle by 20 percent from 2019 levels by 2030. There will be an increased focus on sustainability in mining operations for critical battery materials by working with suppliers and direct purchasing of raw materials sourced sustainably. Additionally, the company is focused on incorporating more recycled plastics in their cars. This strategy may augment long-term profitability,” added Mehta.