US Looking at 40 GW Solar and Wind Additions In 2024 After Blockbuster 2023

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), the official energy statistical agency of the US government released a report on ‘Short Term Energy Outlook’. The report expects that the generation from both natural gas and coal will fall next year in part due to an increase in the generating capacity from renewable sources. It forecasts that 40 GW of solar and wind generating capacity will enter service next year.

The report further adds that this would bring an increase of 16% from this year, thereby leading to an increase in the share of electricity from renewables, from 22% in 2023 to 25% in 2024.The report forecasts that the 42% share of electricity in the U.S. is to be generated from natural gas in 2023. The report shows an upward trend from 39% in 2022.

The report credits this increase to relatively low prices for natural gas. There are other contributing factors such as, the retirement of 10 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired generating capacity this year and 5 GW of new, natural gas-turbine capacity entering service. These factors are expected to further bring the natural gas-fired electricity generation share to fall slightly to a 41% share in 2024.

The report highlights that the increase in renewable generation is the result of new solar generating capacity, expected to rise by 25 gigawatts (GW) in 2023. The report also projects an 8 GW increase in wind-generating capacity to support the increase in renewables energy mix. 

The report shares details on the electricity generation mix, in which natural gas supply will constitute 41% of total U.S. generation supply in 2024, which is down from an average of 42% in 2023. This decline is offset by a forecast increase in the share of renewable generation from 22% this year to 25% in 2024. The report forecasts that natural gas-fired generation is more likely to be affected by the increasing availability of renewable generation than by fuel costs. The report associates this with the growing renewable capacity, which generally has lower operating costs than thermal generation, will lead to decline in natural gas and coal requirements.