226 GW Of Module Shipments By Chinese Majors In H1 Of 2024

Taiwan based consulting and research firm Infolink has released its ranking report for H1 of 2024. According to Infolink, the top 10 Chinese module manufacturers shipped around 226 GW of modules in the first half of this year, up 40% YoY. However, the annual growth rate has begun to narrow and the rapid growth momentum saw in the first half of 2023 is no longer present. Readers will recall that growth in 2024 over 2023 is not expected to be over 25%, presaging a further slow down possibly for the rest of the year globally.

Jinko, JA Solar, Trina, and Longi secured the top four positions with a slight change in their rankings. Since 2019, these vertically integrated companies have sustained at the top four positions, with the big getting bigger. The top 4 accounted for 63% of the total volume of the top 10.

The drop in prices has meant competition among manufacturers in the second tier is very intense, leading to some changes. The new order is Tongwei, Astronergy, and Canadian Solar, with GCL and DAS Solar tied for eighth place, followed by Risen. From fifth to eighth place, the minimum shipment volume reached 10 GW.

Manufacturers outside of the ranking are DMEGC, Yingli, Seraphim, First Solar, and Suntech, with shipment volume reaching beyond 5 GW each.

Among non-Chinese manufacturers. Hanwha Q-Cells’ shipment volume continued to decline, dropping out of the top 10 list in 2023. First Solar, which had been on the list in the past years, also fell out of the ranking this year, and was replaced by new entrants Tongwei and DAS Solar, as well as and established company GCL.

Rationale behind is that overseas manufacturers are now focusing on expanding into non-China markets. Companies like First Solar and Hanwha are primarily targeting the US market, while Indian manufacturers mainly focus on the domestic market. For now, these manufacturers have not significantly increased their production volumes due to factors such as incomplete capacity ramp-up, technology, and equipment adjustment capabilities.

Ratio of shipment to domestic market on the rise

For Chinese manufacturers, domestic demand growth remains relatively stable. As a result, established brands that have re-entered the rankings, as well as new players and cross-industry entrants, account for a larger share in the domestic market, and they continued to expand their market share domestically in the first half, providing a certain level of support for their shipment volumes.

Among the Chinese top 10, Overseas shipments have dropped from 65% in the first half of 2022, to 47% in the same period in 2023, and further to around 44% in 2024.

Large format products dominate shipments

PERC products account for about 27-28% of the total volume, of which the shipment ratio of 182-182.2*182mm-199mm is around 70:30, with other formats sitting at nearly 0%.

N-type TOPCon module shipments account for nearly 70% of the total. Specifically, the shipment ratio of 182-182.2*182mm-199mm and 182*210mm and 210*210mm sizes is about 80% to 20%, with the 182*210mm and 210*210mm accounting for around 10% and 8%, respectively.

HJT and xBC products account for 1% and 4% of the total shipment of the top 10, respectively.

Infolink says that the module shipment trend mirrors that of cells, with near-rectangular formats dominating the majority of shipments in the first half. This includes both PERC and TOPCon, which together account for approximately 64% of the total. The shipment volume for TOPCon rectangular size (182-182.2*182mm-199mm) is gradually increasing, with the 182*199mm and 182*210mm formats making up about 6% and 7% of the total, respectively.

Shipment targets revise down for 2024

Compared to the initial plan of 700 GW in total, the likely achievement for the full year is likely to be in the range of 555-611 GW, with an average achievement rate of about 42%.  Infolink continues to bet that with the rise of protective barriers in key markets, especially the US, the Chinese majors will need to move fast on expanding production facilities overseas.