Climate Change vs Solar Energy: The Battle Within

Decades ago, global warming and associated climate change had prompted the world to take some serious measures, such as curbing GHG emissions and trapping pollutants. Today, the surge of renewable energy, especially solar and wind energy, is now promising the sustainable future the world once dreamed about. However, climate change has also become profound, leading to renewed weather patterns and even extreme weather events. Consequently, these changes now pose a threat to renewables projects too. Solar projects are arguably the most vulnerable of all.

GHI Differences Worldwide

Many major solar hotspots of the world have recently shown anomalies, with notable decreases and increases in solar irradiation across the globe. According to SolarGIS’s 2024 annual irradiation report, which analyses yearly global horizontal irradiation (GHI), the Indian subcontinent has been experiencing a consistent decline in irradiation below the Long-Term Average (LTA) in recent years. 

France, Northern Italy, Uruguay, and Oman are the other countries facing the same. On the other hand, Western Canada, Northeast USA, Central-East Europe, Central China, South Australia, New Zealand, Northern parts of Japan, etc. are above-average GHI areas.

 

Intense solar irradiation has become common in the Midwest and Northeast regions of the US. An extreme heatwave hit states like Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, and Ohio. In Australia, just like in Canada and the US, people suffered from heat waves, floods, droughts and wildfires. The southern regions of Australia, including Melbourne, Perth, and Tasmania, recorded 8 percent to 12 percent higher-than-average solar irradiation last year.

Why Does it Matter?

The fluctuations in expected solar irradiation may adversely affect the efficiency and, hence, the reliability of solar as a source of renewable power. The Solar PV developers and operators generally rely on predictable irradiation levels to meet energy targets or financial commitments. Thus, anomalies like radiation fluctuations can potentially lead to underperformance and financial loss for the stakeholders. 

While global changes in solar radiation are expected to be minimal, regional variations could reach up to 10 percent, affecting solar farm output. Increased cloud cover can cause fluctuations, leading to power generation spikes. For instance, India’s key hubs for solar power, such as Gujarat and Maharashtra, experienced extended periods of below-average irradiation due to persistent cloud cover. These highs and lows in solar and wind energy production can create significant variations in power output, potentially impacting grid stability.

The higher than usual temperatures are also a problem as this may also cause the effectiveness of solar panels to decrease. This is due to the fact that solar panels have a set operating temperature range. In addition to this, a rise in temperature may cause the materials in solar panels to degrade, shortening their lifespan and decreasing their efficacy. 

The Swiss Re Institute reports that PV panels decrease in efficiency by 0.3 percent – 0.5 percent per PV panel temperature degree increase above 25°C, caused by cell and other material damage in the panel, as well as an increase in electrical resistance.

Solar Concern of India

Energy from solar is key to India’s plan to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels for its energy needs. The land receives around 300 sunny days each year and solar radiation levels ranging from 1700 to 2200 kilowatt-hours per square meter annually. As it stands, the country has over 100 GW installed solar power, leading India toward its ambition of producing 50 percent of energy from non-fossil fuels by 2030, and 100 percent by 2070. While these plans paint a pretty good picture, climate change and its effects, such as change in solar irradiance, on renewable energy projects may hinder the progress. 

Solar radiance is likely to decrease across most solar farming regions in India throughout all seasons. In 2024, most of India experienced a decline in solar irradiation by 3 percent to 10 percent, marking another year below average. India’s 2024 monsoon season was one of the wettest in recent years, with rainfall exceeding the long-term average (LTA) by nearly 8 percent.

This is concerning considering India’s heavy reliance on solar for its future energy goals. In order to keep a perfect balance between developmental goals and a clean energy future, India has to explore alternative clean energy sources too. 

Way Forward

As the dependence on wind and solar for energy needs increases, the effects of climate change can’t be ignored. The investments in research and development is the key to produce high efficiency solar modules which can be scaled up to feed the growing requirement for the increased solar efficiencies. 

It is also important to not see solar as the panacea to all ills but just one of the important clean energy sources for a sustainable future. This would mean that alternative clean energy sources such as Green Hydrogen, Nuclear energy, and Biogas must also be considered in national developmental goals. The energy storage solutions will also play a pivotal role in making solar and wind as reliable energy sources. 

From this perspective, the significant push towards nuclear energy announced in the recent Union Budget 2025-26 as part of India’s long-term energy transition strategy seems to be a warranted step. The government has set an ambitious target of 100 GW nuclear power capacity by 2047, positioning nuclear energy as a major pillar in India’s energy mix. 

 

Climate change is significantly impacting the development of the clean energy industry, specially solar. Yet, the importance of solar and wind power cannot be undermined. Despite these challenges, the industry continues to thrive, driven by its recent success. Moreover, other clean energy sources, which previously remained mostly dormant, have the potential to contribute to a more resilient energy mix. The solution does not lie in identifying a single energy source to shape the future but in leveraging a mix of various clean energy alternatives, alongside coal, to meet future energy needs.