Achieving Universal Energy Access by 2030: Can It Be Done?

Universal energy access is not just a development goal. It’s a fundamental requirement for socio-economic growth and improved quality of life. Despite global efforts, millions of people, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, still lack access to electricity and clean cooking solutions. The World Energy Outlook 2024 examines these challenges and explores pathways to achieve universal access by 2030. 

But can it be done?

Current State of Energy Access and Global Goals

As of today, around 750 million people remain without access to electricity, and over 2 billion still rely on polluting and inefficient biomass for cooking. This energy deficit hinders economic development, limits educational opportunities, and poses serious health risks. The global commitment to achieve universal energy access by 2030 aims to close these gaps, as highlighted by United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)​.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasises that achieving this target requires scaling up investment and focusing on clean and decentralised energy solutions. To meet these objectives, policymakers and international organisations must prioritise projects that are adaptable to remote and rural settings.

Achieving Universal Access on Back of Renewables

Achieving universal energy access is essential for global development, but it must be accomplished through renewable energy rather than traditional sources. Prioritizing renewables offers several advantages for expanding access. For example, replacing thermal power generation with renewable sources like wind and solar PV drastically reduces water consumption. 

Additionally, the growth of clean energy creates significant job opportunities in construction, manufacturing, installation, and maintenance, making the development of a skilled workforce crucial for nations seeking to compete in the clean energy sector. Increasing female participation, currently only 15 percent of the energy workforce, is also key to building a diverse and inclusive industry.

In the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) Scenario, accelerating clean energy investments to achieve universal access could reduce premature deaths from outdoor air pollution by 40 percent and indoor pollution deaths by 90 percent by 2030. These benefits underscore the broader advantages of transitioning to renewable energy.

Role of RE in Bridging the Access Gap

A significant portion of the solution lies in renewable energy, particularly decentralised systems like solar home solutions and mini-grids. These technologies are becoming increasingly affordable and scalable, making them ideal for reaching isolated communities.

Decentralised Solar and Mini-Grids

Mini-grids, powered by solar PV or hybrid systems, offer reliable electricity access in areas where grid expansion is impractical or too expensive. These systems can power not only homes but also small businesses, agricultural equipment, and essential services like telecom towers. 

The IEA report highlights that linking energy access projects with productive uses, such as running irrigation pumps or small manufacturing units, enhances economic growth and makes projects more sustainable. By displacing diesel generators, these initiatives reduce emissions and lower costs over time​.

Affordability and Scalability

Despite the falling costs of solar PV and storage technologies, affordability remains a significant hurdle. To overcome this, innovative financing models such as pay-as-you-go systems and digital payment solutions are being introduced, allowing costs to be spread over time. These approaches are essential for making energy access financially accessible to low-income households, particularly in rural areas. However, the report emphasises that scaling these efforts will require greater support from both the private sector and international development finance.

Affordability and fairness are at the heart of today’s energy debate. While clean energy transitions have the potential to lower household energy bills, this relies on a substantial increase in investment and targeted support for those who cannot afford the higher upfront costs of certain clean energy technologies.

Urgent Need to Increase Investment

To achieve universal energy access by 2030, an annual investment of around USD 55 billion is required, with a primary focus on sub-Saharan Africa. Approximately two-thirds of this total investment should be directed to the region. Current investment levels, however, are just below USD 10 billion annually—far short of what is needed. Notably, investment has decreased by around 75 percent from pre-COVID-19 levels. This decline is partly due to large economies making rapid progress in recent years and achieving near-universal electricity access.

One of the key reasons the IEA World Energy Outlook 2024 report emphasises Africa as a major focus for achieving universal energy access is that private capital can only cover a small share of the required financing, while African governments face rising debt sustainability concerns. Therefore, it is critically important that official development assistance is allocated to energy in Africa to ensure faster progress.

However, the level of such assistance for energy projects has remained largely static over the past decade. To ensure inclusive growth and that no one—especially in developing nations—is left behind, stronger international commitment to universal energy access is crucial. The new collective quantified goal on climate finance could serve as a vehicle to close at least part of the funding gap.

Further, the report highlights the importance of leveraging concessional finance tools such as guarantees and first-loss capital, which reduce the perceived risks for investors. This approach is crucial for attracting higher levels of private capital, especially in urban and high-demand areas. However, public finance remains fundamental for reaching the most remote and underserved regions where profitability is low.

Surge in Investments

International climate finance and development assistance are increasingly focusing on energy access, resulting in more concessional capital. The Mission 300 initiative, aimed at providing electricity access to 300 million people, has secured initial pledges of USD 30 billion and is targeting a total of USD 90 billion. 

Additionally, the IEA Summit for Clean Cooking in Africa in May 2024 saw commitments of USD 2.2 billion from public and private sectors for clean cooking solutions. This is in addition to the USD 2 billion committed by the African Development Bank during COP28.

Challenges Ahead

Carrying out these commitments faces obstacles, particularly due to the small scale of projects like clean cooking initiatives and rural off-grid electrification. In many regions, the lack of established private sector companies limits the efficient and timely disbursement of funds. Furthermore, issues such as household affordability, fluctuating pricing regulations, and insufficient reliable benchmarks heighten both perceived and actual risks associated with energy access projects.

Electricity access initiatives are more likely to succeed when they are tied to productive uses and anchor loads, such as small-scale industries, agricultural pumps, and telecom towers, as well as replacing diesel and petrol generators. Expanding clean cooking access in institutional facilities and peri-urban regions has also shown effectiveness in building momentum.

Recent advances in concessional finance, including the introduction of guarantees and first-loss capital, have successfully attracted more private investment. By 2019, private finance accounted for nearly 50 percent of investments in electricity and clean cooking projects, up from 30 percent for electricity in 2013 and under 10 percent for clean cooking. The influx of commercial private capital is expected to continue but will likely focus on profitable projects in urban and high-demand regions. Public and concessional finance remains vital for reaching poorer and remote areas.

The carbon market has also seen growth in financing for clean cooking, with over 40 million credits issued in 2023—representing 15 percent of global carbon credits and a tenfold increase from 2013. While doubts about the reliability of cookstove credits have affected the market, new methodologies, like the CLEAR 2 approach, are being developed to address these concerns.

Can the 2030 Goal Be Achieved?

Achieving universal energy access by 2030 is possible, but it requires a concerted, global effort. Governments, international organisations, and private investors must scale up their commitments and invest strategically in clean, decentralised energy solutions. Strong national policies and institutional support are essential to create a conducive environment for investment, particularly in countries where progress is most needed.

Ultimately, achieving this goal depends on sustained international cooperation and commitment. The World Energy Outlook 2024 calls for a more robust approach to mobilising concessional finance and engaging the private sector. Only through such comprehensive efforts can the world hope to meet the energy access targets and uplift millions of people from energy poverty by 2030​.