As India Goes Past 100 GW Solar Milestone, No Time To Rest

If ever there was a better use of the term turning point, inflection point, or simply the year when everything fell into place, 2024 would probably come the closest for the Indian solar market. These 365 days proved to be a harbinger of several good news for the different stakeholders in the industry, including solar module makers, project developers, and solar inverter makers, all combining to finally raise hopes that the target of 300 GW by 2030 was not as unrealistic as it seemed just 24 months ago.

Data from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) confirms that India’s cumulative solar energy capacity touched 97.8 GW by the end of the Calendar Year 2024. That means by the time you reach this line, it is also likely to surpass 100 GW of solar capacity or run it pretty close. India reported a record solar energy capacity addition of 24.5 GW in the Calendar Year 2024, almost double the capacity it added in CY23. However, it was not the utility-scale solar projects that spurred the growth of India’s renewable energy but the underperformers until recently, rooftop solar and solar in the C&I segment.

So what drove this surge? Many things

Industry players credit the government for making it happen. Shashank Sharma, CEO and Founder at Sunsure Energy says, “The journey to 100 GW in India’s renewable sector is a testament to both calculated policy action and a dynamic market responding to the undeniable global imperative for the energy transition. Key contributors have been a combination of targeted government initiatives, technological innovations, and market forces acting in tandem.” Crediting the work of PSUs like NHPC, SECI and NTPC for systematically channeling resources and helping derisk projects, he adds that the drop in module prices has also played a key role.

Chirag Nakrani, Founder and MD of Rayzon Solar, an emerging solar manufacturer concurs, and adds that

“the advancements in technology such as N-Type TOPCon cells, has boosted energy output. Additionally, the scaling up of domestic manufacturing and the establishment of efficient public-private partnerships have played a crucial role in meeting the 100 GW target.”

Gautam Mohanka, Director of solar manufacturing firm Gautam Solar is also quick to highlight the positives from the government. “PM-KUSUM Scheme, PM Surya Ghar Program, PLI Schemes for Solar PV Modules, permitting 100% Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) under the automatic route, waiving Inter-State Transmission System (ISTS) charges for solar projects to be commissioned by June 30, 2025, the issuance of Standard Bidding Guidelines for competitive procurement of solar power, launch of Standard & Labelling (S&L) programs for solar PV modules and grid-connected inverters, and establishment of Ultra Mega Renewable Energy Parks are some of the most potent catalysts for this transformation, ”said Mohanka.

Vaibhav Pratap Singh, Executive Director at Climate and Sustainability Initiative (CSI) places all this in perspective by highlighting “ Currently, almost all larger solar and wind projects are rated A and above, indicating a low perception of risk within the sector. This reduced risk is further supported by the ongoing participation of foreign investment funds, including pension and sovereign wealth funds, in India’s RE landscape.”

Historic Renewable & Storage Tenders

2024 was also a transformative period for energy storage tenders and projects that count primarily on solar to deliver power beyond solar hours. Record-low tariffs were discovered for solar-plus-storage projects, Firm and Dispatchable Renewable Energy (FDRE) projects, and standalone Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) projects, marking a historic milestone.

For example-in 2024, SECI’s lowest discovered solar plus energy storage tariff came down to Rs 3.41/kWh, bringing it closer and more competitive to the tariffs of a renewable hybrid tender in India. State-level BESS projects with VGF (Viability gap funding) saw tariffs as low as Rs 2.21, making the case for tariffs to crack the Rs 3/kWh barrier in 2025 without VGF.

That has made BESS a favoured option over Pumped Storage (PSP) for now. More importantly, dropping storage costs means even faster adoption of solar, especially for off-grid applications as well.

For example-Jupiter International, one of the few solar cell manufacturers from India now plans to foray into energy storage projects too. “We plan to expand our presence in the renewable energy sector by investing in round-the-clock power storage and consumption solutions,” Dhruv Sharma, CEO of Jupiter International told Saur Energy.

Way Forward In 2025

Things can only become better is the general refrain we heard from industry when we asked about 2025. While developers look to adding more storage in their portfolios, manufacturers are almost all in the middle of defining capacity expansions in most cases.

Gentari-owned developer Amplus Solar, which has built a strong portfolio in the C&I segment and residential solar has plans to diversify its portfolio with its entry into BESS hybrid projects. Sharad Pungalia, CEO at Amplus Solar told Saur Energy, “In 2024, we embarked on a diversification journey beyond Solar, and by the first half of 2025, we aim to commission our first onsite BESS hybrid project, featuring a combination of solar, wind, and battery storage solutions. Further, we also look forward to the completion of our first co-located wind-solar plant, marking a significant milestone in our growth. Several other projects are also scheduled for commissioning in 2025, further bolstering our portfolio.”

Good Days For Module Makers

2024 also proved a significant year for numerous Indian solar module makers who were earlier frustrated with relentless cheap solar module imports from China and the subsequent price wars. As soon as the Indian government re-imposed the original mandate of the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM), the entry of Chinese solar modules into India for a large chunk of solar projects paused.

Module manufacturers that had already expanded, or were expanding capacities have benefited. The handful that make solar cells as well have enjoyed much higher margins than ever. Trump notwithstanding, many firms saw an opportunity for exports to the US as well. The announcement of the introduction of an ALMM-like mandate for solar cells from June 2026 is the icing on the cake for solar manufacturers seeking the assurance of a ready market for their output.

A few months back, Saur Energy wrote on more than 30 Indian solar module makers planning to start solar cell manufacturing soon, taking the domestic solar cell manufacturing capacity from the existing 10 GW to more than 70-80 GW by 2026. The latest ALMM list from MNRE revealed that India’s enlisted solar module manufacturing capacity has crossed 67 GW, with enlisted solar module makers touching 100.

Buoyed by bulging order books and future potential, every manufacturer is expanding at a furious pace. Planning a doubling, or even going to 5x their existing capacity in the next two to three years.

Take the case of Gautam Solar. The company is now planning to start its own in-house solar cell manufacturing unit.

“Our focus is on expanding into international markets and solidifying our position as a key player in solar cell manufacturing. We are also planning to launch an IPO as a part of our growth strategy, with the aim of raising funds to support the establishment of a 2 GW solar cell manufacturing line. This new line will focus on advanced solar cell technologies, further enhancing our production capabilities and competitiveness in the market,” Gautam Mohanka, Director of Gautam Solar told Saur Energy.

Mohanka said that India now needs to ensure achieving a target of 50 GW to 60 GW of solar installations annually to meet its renewable targets. This, he said is possible with a more robust vertically integrated solar value chain in the country.

“To achieve this, India must focus on developing a robust upstream solar ecosystem by establishing domestic production capabilities for critical raw materials like polysilicon, wafers, and solar cells, starting from silica sand, to ensure vertical integration and increased local value addition beyond the current 30-40%, Mohanka added.

Greater Noida-based solar module manufacturing company Integrated Batteries (IB) Solar is also planning 1 GW of solar cell manufacturing. It has planned to take up its cumulative solar module manufacturing capacity to 1.8 GW by July of this year.

Abhinav Mahajan, Director of IB Solar told Saur Energy “Government policies have played a pivotal role in accelerating renewable energy adoption and deployment. In the manufacturing sector, initiatives like Make in India, the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM), and the Basic Customs Duty (BCD) have significantly boosted domestic solar panel production, scaling it to 65 GW—with the industry well on track to surpass 100 GW in the near future,” he said.

Chirag Nakrani, Founder and CEO of Rayzon Solar says that now the time is ripe for the Indian solar module makers to emerge as a key exporter of solar modules.

However, it is not only solar modules and solar cells that these companies have planned. A number of companies like Insolation Energy, Premier Energy, Acme Solar, Saatvik Solar and others have also planned to include the production of Aluminium frames, an important component of solar modules. Importantly, Aluminium frames are also a component that is not as much at risk from Chinese competition.

Rayzon itself has plans for 2025 including the launch of its 1.2 GW TOPCon cell manufacturing plant, marking a significant step in increasing its production capacity and improving the efficiency of solar technology.

“Over the next three years, we plan to expand our production capacity to 13 GW by 2026, as part of a phased approach. We also aim to enhance our global presence by entering new markets, forming strategic partnerships, and accelerating our exports. Additionally, Rayzon Solar will continue its vertical integration strategy by launching an in-house aluminum frame manufacturing unit to ensure better quality control and increased competitiveness in the global solar market”.

Sunsure Energy is not holding back as well. “Over the next three years, Sunsure Energy is set to revolutionize India’s C&I sector by becoming the fastest supplier of Round-the-Clock (RTC) renewable energy solutions. With an ambitious target of 5 GW capacity by 2028, we will lead the charge in energy storage innovation, ensuring uninterrupted, reliable clean power for businesses across India”, says founder Sharma.

From Modules To Polysilicon

While a large number of solar module makers are now venturing into the business of solar cell manufacturing, a number of existing solar cell makers and other firms have plans to go beyond and boost vertical integration. Existing solar cell makers in India like Jupiter International, Premier Energies, Adani Solar, Websol Energy and Waaree Energies have now planned to augment vertical integration with the planned production of wafers. Some of these firms and the ones selected under the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) are now also set to venture into the production of ingots and polysilicon.

“At Jupiter International, our landmark achievement for 2025 is our ambitious ₹6,500 crore investment to significantly expand our solar manufacturing capacity. This strategic investment enables us to achieve a fully integrated manufacturing ecosystem with an impressive 3 GW of wafer production, 9.4 GW of solar cells, and 6 GW of module assembly, Dhruva Sharma, CEO of Jupiter International told Saur Energy.

Solar Inverter Firms Ride The Wave

Rakesh Malhotra, Founder of Livguard Energy Technologies expects that in the next 1-2 years, 25% of the rooftop solar installations under PM Surya Ghar scheme would have hybrid inverters.

With the likely increased demand for hybrid and other grid-tied inverters in India, solar inverter companies are expecting a plum business in 2025. These firms are now buoyed with their sales figures for 2024.

“At Sungrow, we envision a series of key milestones for 2025 and the subsequent three years (2026–2028) that align with India’s renewable energy trajectory and global sustainability goals which include but not limited to expanding energy storage solutions and leading in the segment, scaling up local manufacturing capabilities in India to support the “Make in India” initiative, growing rooftop and distributed solar segment with innovative products and offering best in class service experiences to customers,” Harendra Tomar, Leader- Business Development, Sungrow India.

Shekhar Singal, Managing Director, Eastman Auto & Power Ltd said that it sees 50% of our revenues coming from our solar business over the next 2 years. “At Eastman, this is reflected in our fivefold expansion over the past five years. Fueled by a focus on continuous product improvement and a deep understanding of consumer needs, we are preparing to repeat the feat with our solar solutions business. We see 50% of our revenues coming from our solar business over the next 2 years.”

Solar Project developers & EPC Firms

Sharad Pugalia puts the new market in perspective when he says “India’s renewable energy sector is now characterized by more robust and clear policy frameworks, at the same time, improvements in technology and energy storage solutions have enhanced the feasibility of large-scale renewable energy projects. Having said so, five years ago, the main focus was on scaling capacity, with risks primarily revolving around financing and technological challenges. Today, while there is access to broader electricity markets, increased investor confidence, and greater opportunities for India to lead in areas like green hydrogen, the risks are more multifaceted.

These include disruptions in the supply chain, evacuation bottlenecks and land acquisition issues. Additionally, the emphasis on localized manufacturing enhances the challenges such as higher costs and concerns over supply demand mismatch. While the road ahead presents more complex challenges, it also offers greater opportunities for those who are able to innovate and adapt to the changing environment.”

Although land acquisition is still an issue, states like Uttar Pradesh have come up with a land bank policy where it is giving government land on lease to develop solar parks in the state. The Rajasthan government in its revised state policy also talked about concessional land while the Gujarat government also planned to offer government land with land bank facilities for solar energy projects.

However, issues like hurdles in rolling out of green energy open access rules, and changing policies often create bottlenecks for the renewable energy project developers and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). But what else do we need from the policymakers?

Shashank Sharma of Sunsure encapsulates most of the issues when he states that” to ensure that India’s renewable energy goals are realized, states must balance the interests of both distribution companies (discoms) and end-consumers while ensuring stability and uniformity in policy frameworks across regions. Hence, the need of the hour is to adopt the Green Energy Open Access Rules (GOAR) enabling guidelines and provide developers a clear runway of at least 5 to 10 years. Establishing dedicated transmission corridors for renewable energy will streamline power evacuation and integration, allowing clean energy to reach demand centers efficiently. Tax exemptions on lease agreements for renewable projects will ease financial pressures on developers, promoting quicker project execution and expansion. Creating a robust carbon market and ensuring RPO compliance will strengthen accountability and accelerate India’s shift towards a greener future.

Furthermore, incentivizing the implementation of Round-The-Clock Renewable Energy solutions, such as Battery Energy Storage Systems, will ensure greater and more sustainable integration of renewable energy into India’s grid. The future of India’s energy security lies in implementing bold, impactful reforms that foster innovation, resilience, and growth within the sector”. Sunsure itself aims to expand its solar and wind assets under operation to 1 GW to cement its place as a key player in the Commercial and Industrial (C&I) customers market.

Funding or finance, an aspect that was a point of worry right upto 2023, has improved according to most players today. Vaibhav Pratap Singh, of  CSI adds, “After 2015, various policy measures, such as the National Solar Mission, the establishment of solar parks for a plug-and-play model, and the introduction of intermediaries like the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI), greatly enhanced sectoral deployments. These initiatives made RE investments appealing to both domestic and foreign investors, leading to lower tariffs over time, which made them attractive to electricity distribution companies.”

The Trump Effect

The return of Donald Trump as the new President of the United States (US) seems to have a direct relationship with the Indian solar module makers who seek exports, mostly to the US. Many who had planned to set up manufacturing in the US are also worried now that the IRA has been put on hold.

While Waaree Energies has already announced commencing module production from its Houston plant, companies like Premier Energies, Navitas, Rayzon Solar have also put their plans on ice awaiting clarity.

Conclusion

The biggest risk to solar growth remains an oddly common risk. The risk of overheating, or in this case, prices dropping too fast in case of the many hybrid projects bid out. Fast-dropping bids in storage-linked tenders have meant the inevitable tendency to wait and watch by many discoms, the ultimate buyers, putting at risk many tenders that have been awarded. It was this delay in signing of PPA that has already placed the earliest 500 MW storage tender from GUVNL at risk, with CERC refusing to adopt a tariff it considered too high considering market conditions. Both the government and industry need to ensure that this one long-term legacy of the way India works is sorted out, either by pooling bids, or any other method that works, as long as it does not trip up the momentum that has been built up after so much effort.

The remaining risk is again linked to prices, as DCR modules continue to command a huge premium over Non-DCR modules, increasing the risk of government intervention if prices were to rise due to any rise in input materials in China. As we have repeatedly seen and learned, just wishing that prices will remain stable in China doesn’t really work, and if China can surprise on the downside, as it did with record low prices in 2024, it could upend many plans with a sharp rise in the second half of 2025 too. India might find itself facing pressure to allow exemptions yet again in that case, if domestic manufacturers do not up their game on DCR module production and prices.

Sunsure’s Sharma adds that the nature of risks has changed today. “The risks today are different – they stem more from systemic challenges, such as the complexities of integrating renewable energy into a legacy grid system. These risks require greater innovation and policy development to allow for greater flexibility. India stands on the brink of a pivotal moment in its renewable energy journey where strategic investments in key infrastructure such as incentivizing energy storage technologies, dedicated transmission lines and an upgraded grid system coupled with favorable policies, and regulatory stability – will determine the future course of the RE sector.

The coming years will define whether these challenges if met with decisive and sustained action, will not only resolve India’s energy concerns but also position India as a unique example of responsible economic growth driven by renewable energy on the global stage”.

The Rise Of Rooftop & Off-Grid Segments A recent report by SBI CAPS points out that the non-utility sector, namely the rooftop segment and off-grid solar solutions has also witnessed high growth in 2024, helping spread solar wider and offering more stable growth. “Of the 24.5 GW added in CY24, 6 GW (25%) came from non-utility sources, well above their share in installed capacity. Rooftop solar saw a 4.6 GW rise in CY24, a meteoric 53% yoy growth, while off-grid solar saw 197% rise,” the SBI CAPS report said. Solar dominated new capacity additions in CY24. “Over 85% additions in CY24 were of renewables, with solar alone forming 73%. A strong pipeline exists, and we continue to expect a cumulative ~50 GW of solar and wind additions in FY25 and FY26. Wind additions doubled to 3.4 GW of addition in CY24, with Gujarat, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu accounting for 98% of this capacity,” the report added.