Saur Energy International August 2024- The Wait for Great Renewable Deals

Editorial

What happened to those unbelievably low solar tender bids? People still remember how bids breached the Rs 2 per unit floor, back in 2020 at an auction by GUVNL. However, after a brief time, prices climbed yet again, and in a period of volatility since that the industry has rarely seen, today rule in the range of Rs 2.50 or over. Except that global solar prices at their lowest yet again. So why are prices actually expected to remain stable, with an upward bias if any?

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The answer lies in India’s massive push for self sufficiency in solar, where not only does 2025 promise a completely changed picture of surplus module making capacity, but even cell making capacity in double digits. However, during this journey, prices in India are expected to remain elevated vis a vis global prices from the China dominated industry, as Indian manufacturers try to recover investments in a business where technology and product both depreciate fast, sometimes every 4 years.

Domestic manufacturers are confident for the first time in decades that they have a market where they can make money, thanks to tariff and non tariff protection, and a strong domestic demand. Our cover feature explores just when the price of this domestic self sufficiency will pay off for the end consumer as well.

In the wind sector, it’s a somewhat different story, with retreating global majors leaving the market at the mercy of two domestic, and one Chinese player. With even the O&M market consolidating narrowly. Will that be enough to ensure fair competition? We will be tracking it too.

Luckily for both, especially solar, the onus of more ‘reasonable’ prices might fall on energy storage, where dropping prices could support a strong pick up in storage linked renewable projects to meet demand for RTC power.

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