Solar Emerges As Primary Choice For Domestic Funding Of NDC Targets: IRENA

A latest International Renewable Energy Association (IRENA) report shared the status of the renewable energy target in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) until October 2023 and talked about the role of solar in this. It found that 148 parties have set quantifiable renewable energy targets for tripling renewable energy power by 2030. In this, 113 have power targets, and only 33 have targets for end uses such as heating, cooling, and transport.

IRENA in its report on “NDCs and renewable energy targets in 2023: Tripling renewable power by 2030” found that, until October 2023, 184 parties had included renewable energy components in their NDCs. Among these, 148 had a quantifiable target, and only 12 parties had committed to a percentage of renewables in their overall energy mixes. Reportedly, the G-20 countries are found to fall short by 30% of achieving their 2030 target. It adds that, as per IRENA’s 1.5°C pathway and the pledge to triple renewable power globally, the G20 alone would need to grow renewable installed capacity from less than 3 TW in 2022 to 9.4 TW by 2030, accounting for 80% of the global share.

These conditional targets predominantly focus on relatively emerging technologies such as solar photovoltaic (PV) (49%), onshore wind (28%), and hydropower (20%). In contrast, unconditional targets, which are more reliant on domestic public funding, lean more towards hydropower (48%), followed by solar PV (31%), and onshore wind (11%).

Status of the NDC Target Among G-20 Members

As of October 2023, 13 of the 20 members of the G20 had set renewable energy power targets in their NDCs. A quantification of these targets finds that if they were all met by 2030, this would result in just 4.6 TW of installed capacity in G20 economies (Figure 5). However, looking at the commitments made in national policies and plans (excluding announcements), G20 members are already planning to install 6.3 TW (Ember, 2023). This shows that the current ambition laid out in both the NDCs and the national energy plans of G20 parties is insufficient. Moreover, not all commitments made at the national level are reflected in global climate pledges, or NDCs.

It identified the issue of misalignment between the target set by the NDC and national policies to harmonize the climate pledge with the international community. Within the G-20 countries, among the 13 of the G20 parties that have renewable power targets in their NDCs, 11 are aligned with their national policy documents.

It suggested that the NDCs in India, Indonesia, and Turkey would require international financial assistance and technology transfer. In India’s case, it would reportedly require NDC to have “50% cumulative installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based resources by 2030, the IRENA report said. 

This brought the unconditional commitments to just 4.3 TW of cumulative installed capacity (93% of the 4.6 TW committed in NDCs), while 7% of the overall capacity targeted by the G20 is conditional on international financial support. Moreover, the IRENA report takes the case of LDCs (Least Developed Countries) and finds that LDCs contribute to less than 4% of global GHG emissions. A total of 46 parties to the Paris Agreement that are classified as LDCs have committed to a total of 105 GW of renewable installed capacity by 2030 in their NDCs (a total of 47 GW was installed as of 2022, out of which almost 90% is hydropower). It adds that, about 28 GW remains to be installed unconditionally through a mix of domestic and international public and private funding sources, and an additional 30 GW is conditional on securing additional international financial support, the IRENA report said. 

Reportedly, renewable energy investments in LDCs need to more than triple in the period 2023–2030 compared to 2013–2020. which the LDCs received fewer than 1% of global investments. It analyzes that scaling up affordable renewable energy financing to LDCs, including for off-grid applications, is of paramount importance to advance progress on energy access and achieve broader socioeconomic development goals.

As of 2021, according to IRENA, this commitment had not yet been met, with climate financing totaling less than USD 90 billion that year. Preliminary findings suggest that this goal may have been met for the first time in 2022.