Coal Generation To Remain 30% Higher Than Solar Generation: IEA

Despite continuous effort to add more renewable energy capacity, International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest report found that coal dependence continues to persist. IEA world energy outlook report found, “Generation from coal remains over 30% higher than that from solar PV, even in a decade in which solar PV accounts for twice as much capacity, owing to the lower capacity factor of solar installations.”

IEA in its latest report, ” further elaborates, “Coal has been playing a prominent role in meeting energy demand in industry, providing 40% of its energy needs in 2023. By 2035, the consumption of coal in industry will have grown by 50%, with its share in total industry demand remaining at similar levels as today.” Additionally, India is projected to have the world’s third-largest installed battery storage capacity by 2030 to accommodate the rising share of variable renewable energy.

Electric Vehicles

Additionally, while electric vehicles are expected to play a significant role in reducing fossil fuel dependence there is also a rapid rise in electric mobility, which contributes to oil consumption peaking in the 2030s. It added, Coal use in industry also peaks in the 2030s as industrial use of electricity and hydrogen rises steadily. On its trajectory to net zero emissions by 2070, India’s aggregate annual CO2 emissions are expected to reach 2.5 billion tonnes in 2035, which is 25% below the level projected in the STEPS.

Two/Three-Wheelers and Buses Lead the EV Revolution in India

India is one of the largest markets in the world for two/three-wheel vehicles and the fourth-largest passenger car market. Over the next decade, India will add over 37 million cars and over 75 million two/three-wheelers to its roads in the STEPS. While an increasing share of vehicle sales are electric, the simultaneous growth of internal combustion engine vehicles results in oil demand from road transport rising by 40% by 2035 in the STEPS scenario. This can contribute to an increased dependence on oil imports. Adding over 12,000 additional cars every day in India places significant further demands on road infrastructure, exacerbates already poor air quality, and contributes to a 30% rise in CO2 emissions from all road passenger transport by 2035.

The partly to available incentives, 5% of two-wheelers, 50% of three-wheelers, and 7% of buses sold in India today are electric. Over the next decade, two/three-wheelers and buses are expected to see faster rates of electrification in the STEPS than passenger cars due to existing government support, consumer preferences, and market development. With the net zero emissions by 2070 pathway in India, reflected in the APS, EVs account for a larger share of vehicle sales – especially for passenger cars – by 2035 than they do in the STEPS.