Battery Usage In Transport, Power Can Abate 60% Energy Needs: Report

A recent report by Rock Mountain Institute (RMI) found that increase usage of battery in transportation can reduce fossil fuel requirements up to half.

The report found, “Demand is growing on an S-curve. Battery sales have been doubling every two to three years, and we are on track for a six to eight times increase by 2030, with sales of 5.5-8 TWh per year. • A reinforcing feedback loop of scale, cost, and quality. As the battery market grows, unit cost keeps falling and quality keeps rising. Both battery cost and energy density are on learning curves: for every doubling of battery production, costs fall by 19%-29% and the density of leading batteries rises by 7%-18%.”

It adds, “This surge in battery utilization is poised to drive a substantial reduction, up to half, in global fossil fuel demand, playing a crucial role in curbing emissions from transportation and power sectors, pushing us more than 60% closer to achieving a zero-carbon energy system.”

Exponential Growth on an S-curve:

The report found, “Battery sales are following an S-curve trajectory, doubling every two to three years. Projections indicate a six to eightfold increase by 2030, reaching sales of 5.5-8 TWh per year.”

Reinforcing Feedback Loop:

The RMI study shows, “Battery market is characterized by a positive feedback loop involving scale, cost, and quality. Growing market size leads to falling unit costs and rising quality. Cost and energy density exhibit learning curves, with costs expected to drop to $32-54 per kWh, and energy density reaching 600-800 Wh/kg by 2030.”

Sector and Country-Specific Domino Effect:

The report found that the adoption of battery technologies is spread across countries. It added, from consumer electronics to cars, and now expanding into stationary storage and transportation, the global shift is underway. It stated that, “Batteries will enable renewable technologies to replace 175 EJ of fossil fuel demand in the electricity sector and 86 EJ of demand in the road transport sector and put at risk the remaining 23 EJ of transport demand from shipping and aviation.”

Capacity Expansion and Market Size:

The report found, “There is a significant ramp-up in capacity, with 400 gigafactories aiming to produce 9 TWh of batteries annually by 2030. This scale positions the battery market to surpass both solar and wind, becoming the largest clean tech market.”

Fossil Fuel Demand Reduction:

The report showcase, “Batteries are instrumental in enabling the replacement of 175 EJ of fossil fuel demand in the electricity sector and 86 EJ in road transport. Over 60% of global energy-related emissions could be reduced, contributing to climate goals.”

Overcoming Barriers:

While supply chains face challenges, ongoing innovation and investment indicate that raw materials can be sourced sustainably. Moreover, the development of charging infrastructure for a battery-dominated energy system is feasible.

Collective Effort for Continued Growth:

The progress of batteries thus far results from the collaborative efforts of companies, governments, researchers, and climate advocates. Sustained growth will necessitate ongoing commitment and concerted action. The roadmap for batteries is clear, but it requires collective dedication to navigate successfully.