India Can Export 8.6cr Electric Two Wheelers By 2047: RMI

In its recent report, RMI highlighted that in 2023, over 15 lakh electric vehicles (EVs) were registered in India. To achieve energy independence it advocated for India to adopt 100% clean fuel vehicle sales in all vehicle segments by 2043.

RMI recently released its report, “India at 2047: A Vision for Energy Independence in the Mobility Sector”. In this report, it identified the role of EVs in India’s automotive sector. The report presented the view that, “If India aims to export 50% of its two-wheeler production and 70% of its three-wheeler production, and transition 50% of the total export to electric by 2047, the country has an opportunity to cumulatively export nearly 8.6 crore electric two-wheelers and 3.6 crore electric three-wheelers between 2024 and 2047, demonstrating a cumulative market value of Rs. 27.87 lakh crores (US$336 billion).”

RMI, in its report, highlighted the importance of EVs, stating that investing to expand clean electricity resources to 500 gigawatts (GW) of renewables by 2030 would require up to an 85% clean grid by 2047. The report added, “This would require upgrades to the distribution infrastructure to accommodate the rising demand for EVs and require all charging and battery swapping infrastructure to be powered by 100% clean electricity by 2045.” Additionally, guidelines are important for installing public charging stations (e.g., density and distance requirements), residential and office charging use case guidelines, and EV tariffs for public charging stations.

Challenges

The report also mentions some of the key challenges, such as:

• Difficulty in identifying suitable land for installation and locations for charging and battery swapping infrastructure
• Current density and distance requirements (i.e., one public charging station in every 3 × 3 square km grid in urban areas) not meeting market needs
• The high cost of real estate adversely affects charging and battery-swapping profitability
• High cost of electrical infrastructure upgrades at otherwise optimal sites
• Delays in securing electrical connections
• Complex and lengthy permitting processes to install charging stations
• Lack of regulatory frameworks and safety standards for battery-swapping equipment
• Lack of long-term national and subnational targets established for the number of public charging and battery-swapping stations

These challenges have led to the slow deployment of charging and battery-swapping infrastructure. As EV adoption increases, it will be critical to develop a comprehensive policy framework to address these challenges. Continuing to look for ways to future-proof the ecosystem and address these challenges will lead to long-term success in the market.

Actions and Milestones – Near-term (2024–2030)

• National government to establish national public charging and battery swapping infrastructure installation targets for 2027 and 2030.
• MoP to implement ToD EV rates at the state level (prioritizing state DISCOMs with higher EV adoption in the near term) that (1) reduce demand during peak load hours, (2) save customers money, and (3) are opt-out in most cases so most customers benefit.
• Subsidy schemes to include funding for electrical infrastructure upgrades at charging sites (e.g., through MoP or at the state level).
• Charger standards to reduce stranded assets and encourage investment in public charging.
  • Interoperability standards to allow chargers and networks to communicate without hardware changes (this includes enabling smart charging by adopting standards like OpenADR)
  • Battery swapping definition along with compliance, certification, and safety standards
  • Vehicle-to-charger ratios and vehicle-to-battery swapping station ratios adopted for urban areas and highways