EV Sales Rise with Implementation of Stringent Emission Norms: Frost & Sullivan

EV sales will be driven by the implementation of stringent emission norms across countries and global policies favouring the adoption of electric vehicles

Frost & Sullivan’s recent analysis, Global Electric Vehicle Market Outlook, 2020, finds that the COVID-19 uncertainty will globally dent electric vehicle (EV) sales, which are estimated to stand somewhere between ±9 percent in 2020 compared to 2019 under three different scenarios—gradual containment, severe pandemic, and global emergency. But as the market recovers, which is probably after June in the best-case prospect, it is predicted to experience healthy growth. In an optimistic scenario, EVs are estimated to grow by 8.6 percent year-on-year (YoY), registering 2.5 million unit sales (battery electric vehicles plus plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) globally in 2020.

“EV sales will be driven by the implementation of stringent emission norms across countries and global policies favouring the adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs),” said Prajyot Sathe, Automotive and Transportation Industry Manager at Frost & Sullivan. “Additionally, non-monetary or tax incentives are likely to be more attractive for buyers as countries with the highest EV penetration ratio such as Norway and the Netherlands offer these rather than cash incentives.”

“If BEVs are pushed by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) on new energy vehicle (NEV) credit mandates, China is set to remain the market leader with a 48.3 percent share. Further, Europe is expected to have the highest YoY growth of over 10 percent—availability of models, reduced delivery times and compliance push are major growth factors in the EU,” he added.

As per the analysis, to tap into the growth prospects exposed by EV, market participants should focus on the following:

• The introduction of new models will help OEMs increase the percent penetration of EVs.
• A huge number of recyclers and dismantlers will come into play as the first phase of batteries will be available for second life or recycling.
• Charging as a service is an emerging trend. Hence, partnerships will be necessary for traditional participants to compete with start-ups.
• Capitalizing on existing expertise will help component manufacturers sustain the transformation of the industry.

In May, research company BloombergNEF (BNEF) had revealed in its report that sales of electric passenger vehicles (EV) are forecast to fall 18 percent in 2020, to 1.7 million worldwide – with the coronavirus crisis interrupting ten successive years of strong growth. However, sales of combustion engine cars are set to drop even faster this year (by 23 percent), and the long-term electrification of transport is projected to accelerate in the years ahead.