China’s Capacity Glut Likely To Keep Lithium Battery Prices Down-Trendforce Research

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Insufficient downstream demand has put a damper on both supply and demand in the EV battery market. TrendForce reveals that the ASP of EV cells in China fell below CNY 0.6/Wh in August. The average price drops of EV square ternary cells, LFP cells, and pouch ternary power cells reached 10%, with respective prices of CNY 0.65/Wh, CNY 0.59/Wh, and CNY 0.7/Wh—highlighting an uninspiring growth pattern in the EV battery market.

Expectations for robust August demand in the energy storage market fizzled out, exacerbated by weakened overseas demand. This slowdown forced battery manufacturers to pump the brakes on production, causing prices of energy storage cells to slide below CNY 0.6/Wh. With a glut in China’s storage cell production capacity, a price war appears unavoidable, with a continued gradual price decline expected for the rest of the year.

Consumer electronics also faced sluggish demand in August, forcing battery cell suppliers to focus on liquidating existing inventories. TrendForce indicates that the ongoing drop in the prices of lithium salts and cobalt [II, III] oxide shows no signs of bottoming out. Manufacturers, therefore, seem hesitant to stock up, opting for a “business as usual” approach to production. A downward trajectory of LCO battery prices seems likely through September.

Weak demand in both the power and energy storage sectors has put pressure on lithium salt prices, which spiraled down to an average of CNY 230,000/ton in August—a steep QoQ dive of 20%. TrendForce warns that prices may plunge to less than CNY 200,000/ton, making buyers increasingly skittish about making purchases. However, there’s a glimmer of hope: suppliers have initiated production cutbacks, providing a potential floor for lithium salt prices to rebound from as we approach September.

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