Battery Recycling Can Slash Global Lithium Demand By 46%: RMI

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A latest report from global energy think tank–RMI said that mineral recycling can aid in slashing the global Lithium demand by around 46 percent. Battery demand is expected to surge in the coming years. To meet this demand, RMI said that rather than focusing solely on new extraction, countries can focus on battery recycling.

Currently, energy density and recycling saw an improvement with lithium, nickel, and cobalt demand being 60%–140% higher than they are today, according to the report. It added, that the majority of global lithium-ion batteries already get recycled today. The report argues that battery minerals are not the new oil. It suggests that, even as battery demand rises, advances in efficiency, innovation, and recycling will drive peak demand for mined minerals within a decade. It added, these advancements could even enable us to avoid mineral extraction altogether by 2050. By transitioning from a linear extraction model to a circular economy, we can achieve significant benefits for our climate, security, health, and wealth.

The report proposes that lowering peak mineral demand is feasible with the deployment of more recycling solutions. It connects the increase in battery demand with a rise in mineral demand but, it predicts that the peak in mineral demand will occur earlier and at a lower level due to accelerated trends. Specifically, the peak lithium demand is projected to be 46% lower, reaching less than three times the current levels. Similarly, peak nickel demand is expected to be 31% lower, at 2.5 times the current demand. Under this accelerated scenario, cobalt demand may peak close to current levels.

The study showed that approaching Net-Zero Battery Mineral Demand by 2050, after reaching its peak, battery mineral demand is anticipated to decline. As annual battery demand hits its maximum, losses in the collection and recycling recovery system can be offset by reductions in mineral demand per battery due to increased efficiency and innovation.

The report gives a bifurcation and explains that, for instance, if 95% of batteries are collected for recycling and nickel is recovered at 99% efficiency (under the accelerated scenario), the net recovery rate could exceed 94%. This implies that, over a battery’s lifetime, which can exceed a decade, reducing demand by just 6% can counterbalance recycling losses.

Based on the presented data, the report found, that vehicle unit nickel demand has dropped by nearly 45% over the past decade. It gives an overview according to which, an energy transition scenario, is expected to approach maximum annual battery demand by the mid-2030s. Within a decade, equilibrium between mineral demand and recycling is likely, leading to net mineral demand approaching zero by the mid-2040s. Minerals beyond lithium, cobalt, and nickel could also achieve net-zero demand.

The report suggested that there is a need to mine a cumulative 125 million tons of battery minerals, which can get to circular battery self-sufficiency. That is 17 times smaller than the amount of oil we extract and process for road
transport every year. And, at today’s commodity prices, about 20 times cheaper as well.

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