As Usage Increases, 30% of Two-Wheelers Will Be Electrified by 2030

According to a recently published survey report, new manufacturers will drive the transition toward electric two-wheelers, which will account for 30% of the country’s market by 2030.

By 2030, passenger cars will be 15% electric, and three-wheelers would be 75% electric, according to a BNP Paribas analysis entitled “India Autos—Electric vehicles: Minutes to midnight.”

The report anticipates “FY22 as the year of inflection for the two-wheeler EV sector, with an accelerated EV adoption made possible by subsidies, increased availability, new model introductions, a rise in oil costs, and increased public awareness. The rate of incentive withdrawal provides an upside/downside risk, according to the report (India Autos – Electric vehicles: Minutes to midnight), which projects that 30% of the 2W industry would be electric by 2030.”

The two-wheeler market is anticipated to develop as a result of new entrants. Okinawa Autotech holds a volumetric 20% market share. 93% of the segment’s volume is accounted for by the top 10 businesses. Sales of electric two-wheelers (e2W) are highest in Maharashtra. 84% of all e2W sales are made up of the top 11 states.

According to the analysis, by 2030, 75% of the three-wheeler market would be electrified, with market leader Bajaj Auto serving as a development accelerator. YC Electric now holds a 10% market share, making it the top firm in the sector. Less than 40% of the volume is accounted for by the top 10 companies. One-third of all-electric three-wheeler registrations come from Uttar Pradesh. Delhi and Bihar are the other two important states.

Electric passenger vehicles are still in their infancy; the analysis predicted an uptick in EV adoption after FY25 and a 15% penetration rate by 2030.

By 2025, there will be more EVs because of improved charging infrastructure, government regulations, falling prices for vehicles, and the release of new models by original equipment manufacturers (OEM). Tata Motors commands an 80% volume market share in this sector. With a market share of 33%, Maharashtra is the largest market for EPV. The top 10 states make for around 90% of the total.

India has pledged to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and minimise its carbon emissions, and clean energy mobility will be essential to attaining these goals. “CO2 emissions from new automobiles have not decreased significantly over the past few years. For 2Ws, it has slowed, and for PVs, it has stopped. Customers switching to greater CO2 (carbon dioxide) emitting SUVs and bigger cc two-wheelers is one of the main causes for this slowdown in CO2 decrease,” according to experts.

According to the report, “EV start-ups will benefit from being first to market. Start-ups lead the disruption in a segment, as has been seen over the past ten years in various industries; legacy corporations follow them; the first-mover advantage achieved by these start-ups likely affects the market dynamics in the industry in terms of market share, new streams of revenue.”